Religious parties may not fare well

Bahraini Islamists who won the majority of municipal seats in last May's local elections may not do so well in tomorrow's national polls, as the country's most influential religious groups are boycotting the elections, according to local analysts.

Others, meanwhile, believe the elections, Bahrain's first national polls in three decades, coupled with the international and regional events in post-September 11 attacks on the U.S., will lead to the 'revival' of the until-now dormant liberal movement, a dominant force in the country from the early 1950s to the late 1970s.

In the municipal elections, held in two rounds last May, Islamists won more than 40 seats among the total 50. Members of the Islamic National Wefaq Society alone, representing the mainstream Bahraini Shiites, won 20 seats.

The group, along with three others; two left-leaning groups and another religious Shiite group, is boycotting tomorrow's polls to protest the 2002 constitutional changes.

"Wefaq's absence may give a chance (to win) to independent candidates who don't belong to any of the political currents," predicted Mahdi Rabi'e, a political analyst for the local daily Al Ayyam.

On the other hand, he added, there are the religious Sunni associations which are taking part in the process. "In addition to the strong candidates, they have the ability to mobilise their supporters on the voting day," he said.

But as a result of the nature of the country's demography, it is divided in Sunni and Shiite areas, Rabi'e explained.

It will prove hard for the Islamists to manage a majority in the elected house. "Members of the Sunni groups may win more in their areas but they need others winning in the Shiite areas, and of course this is not possible because the Wefaq and its supporters are staying at home," he said.

This 'scenario' means independent candidates will finally manage to have 'some muscle' in the upcoming parliament, a 'liberal' candidate Bader Abul Malik told Gulf News.

"It will not be the Kuwaiti scenario. Absolutely not," the ex-Communist formerly-exiled dissident said.

Islamists have controlled the Kuwaiti parliament since it was restored in 1992 following the liberation of the country from the Iraqi occupation.

"The world has changes since then," and added that in the so-called 'post-9/11 world', the Islamists have been losing ground to other political opponents in many Arab countries due to the fierce campaign (led by the U.S. media) against many religious groups and charity organisations.

Abdul Malik also thinks the recent attack by two Kuwaiti self-described followers of Bin Laden on an American military patrol unit, which resulted in the death of a U.S. marine, will lead other governments in the region, including Bahrain, to squeeze the political and financial muscles of religious groups.

"They no longer have the leverage; they will have to play it like everybody else."
Rise of liberals

He expected that liberals, on the other hand, will "rise again because liberalism flourishes" where democracy and constitutional systems are applied.

"In a very short time, the people will see the rewards of the democratic reforms which mirror many systems in the advanced world; and of course, they will never agree to turn back the clock."

The Bahraini government, however, said it is not weary of any political gains the Islamists may get in the elections. "They are all Bahrainis and we are confident that all political currents adopt a 'Bahrain First' principle," a senior official told Gulf News.

Likewise, the Crown Prince, Sheikh Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa shrugged off such implications.

"We are all Muslims but we are also against any Taliban-like convictions," he told a press conference yesterday when he was asked by an American journalist if those candidates who "share the views of the Taliban" will worry the government if they win seats in the parliament.

"They may look like Taliban but they certainly don't espouse the same views as the Taliban," he commented.