MMA faces crucial political weight test

A populist message will always have a receptive environment, and almost certainly pave the way for political popularity.

In the voter's eye, the six-party religious alliance, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) men were worthy of their votes. Their candidates were men who were simple, accessible, and God-fearing. They were untested in governance yet tested in 'the way of God' through the Afghan jihad.

For the voter then, the MMA's message had a resonance that the others lacked. Moreover, the MMA "live" their message.

Defying the notion articulated by government and analysts, that those who encouraged young people and the venerated elderly to take part in the Afghan jihad and strengthen the hands of the Taliban deserved punishment, several hundred millions in North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Baluchistan and some in Sindh and Punjab have sent these men whom the U.S. and others of their ilk see as worthy of punishment, to the National and provincial assemblies.

In the exercise of their constitutional democratic right, they have sent men with links to the Hizbul mujahideen and Taliban to parliament. Tutored to take the "righteous" path against the Soviets and then against India in Indian Jammu and Kashmir, millions of voters see the relevance of this tutoring as a path to salvation for their own homeland.

Those responsible for the radicalisation of their thinking and action may not have vouched for their inward incursion through the democratic route. They are here now. Perhaps to stay, perhaps their numbers will grow, perhaps not.

High-profile leaders

In a collection of six political parties, the Jamaat Ulema Islamia's Maulana Fazlur Rehman's group and the Jamaat-i-Islami have bagged the maximum number of seats. High profile leaders of other parties include Maulana Sami-ul-Haq and Maulana Shah Ahmad Noorani. It has 60 seats in the National Assembly in Islamabad and the majority chunk of 65 seats in NWFP. With 17 in Baluchistan, 11 in Sindh and 11 in Punjab it has a nation-wide presence.

The competence of this political collective has yet to be put to test. Some within the group are politically astute. Many of their men and women are effective and convincing orators. Without being burdened by incumbency responsibilities MMA orators could well dominate parliamentary debates earning significant media attention.

Multiple and diverse factors constitute the context within which the MMA achieved through democratic means its first ever major representation in the national parliament. These include the American action in neighbouring Afghanistan.

The creation of a leadership vacuum which provided political space to MMA after the establishment blocked the return of the PPP (Pakistan People's Party) and PML-N (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz) top leadership is also a factor. As is the state's repeated failure to deliver to the public the basics of a decent life.

Disillusionment

The terms of Pakistan-U.S. engagement over Washington's war against terrorism could have also facilitated their rise while the disillusionment among sections of the public with mainstream politics, and the increasing incidence of poverty where 33 per cent of the population already lives below the poverty line is believed to have been a catalyst.

The decision of religious parties to fight from a common platform, and the use of divisive terminology like 'fighting religious extremism' instead of resolving to establish rule of law and protecting the life and property of its citizens also played a part.

In this context MMA's message was of regaining national sovereignty, rolling back U.S. influence, challenging U.S. growing hegemony and creating a people friendly constitutional government. MMA's election manifesto assured its supporters it would enforce egalitarian Islamic rule in Pakistan.

MMA's political success has altered an established fact that Pakistanis were willing to give the hide of the sacrificial goat but not their vote to the religious parties. The profoundly Muslim ethos of the average Pakistani until the 2002 elections did not translate into political scene. Now the often repeated fact that barring three to four per cent, the rest of the Pakistanis do not support religious parties has been shattered.

There are interesting features to MMA's victory especially in NWFP and also in Baluchistan. For example the majority of the winning candidates belong to the non-elite classes. They range from masjid imams to farmers and former advocates.

Significantly these members have knocked out the NWFP's political heavyweights from the centre. Out of the reckoning are the Saifullahs, the Hotis, the Arbabs and the Bilours. Also out in the cold is Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's cabinet colleague Abbas Sarfraz and the Awami National Party's Walibagh family - Asfandyar Wali, a widely respected politician.

Educated either in madrassas, to universities, the MMA's elected men and 'selected' women enter the parliament with madrassa degrees or masters in English and political science. Elected to the Frontier Assembly from PF-91 Dir young Inayatullah holds both degrees.

It would be erroneous to view MMA's electoral support in NWFP and Baluchistan exclusively from a class, or religion or ethnicity prism.

The relatively restricted electoral support that MMA received from Punjab and Sindh can be explained by numerous factors. These include the abiding domestic plus international establishment-political elite partnership, as well as the enduring links that the people have with the PPP and the MQM, and the relatively greater stake and engagement that the urban citizens of these two provinces have in the socio-economic status quo.

The preferences of the urban and educated classes, lesser "militarisation" of religious institutions during the Afghan jihad and relatively greater physical and personal distance from the CIA-funded and Pakistan-U.S. joint execution of the Afghan jihad has also contributed.

Post-election strategy

MMA's post-election strategy has been to remain united, keep negotiations going with all political players, engage with the establishment while bargaining for positions without bargaining away all principled positions.

They have not zeroed-in for now on the narrow and potentially most divisive issues like the role of women and 'riba'.

Instead they have called for upholding the Constitution, the supremacy of the parliament and assured the world that it would not opt for any rash or disruptive steps especially in the economic and development arena.

Barring NWFP, the MMA will likely remain in the opposition. Waiting and working for perhaps better future fortunes MMA will opt for issue-based unity with especially the PML(N). In the post-election context the politics of survival and of compromise, of patronage and power may dominate all else.

U.S. factor

Equally the U.S. factor is likely to remain intact in Pakistan. The establishment is unlikely to call for a decrease in U.S. forces and of FBI and CIA presence. Against this backdrop, the intangibles like integrity, sovereignty, justice, dignity, political, supra-national Muslim consciousness cum con