Looking to the day after

Anticipation of the outcome of an attack or war against Iraq is currently the dominant mood in the Arab world. The consequences of what some have come to describe as an 'invasion' will not be confined only to Iraq, many analysts believe.Hence, fear and a sense of unease of what the future holds is what the Arab world is contemplating.

We have already come to know the political and economic calculations of a war against Iraq where the gains will solely be that of the U.S., states Akhbar Al Arab (UAE) in its editorial comment.

The question that should be posed instead is with regard to the nature of the forthcoming changes which will certainly lead to an upheaval in the region, observes the editorial. Indeed, the question is how radical will these changes be and whether they will benefit us.

Is there not a single person in the Arab world who is capable of predicting the kind of changes that Washington is advancing, the editorial sarcastically notes. These are certainly not changes that the people and the countries of the region wish to achieve.

The imagination of some people may well have carried them into believing that Washington is, indeed, seeking fundamental changes that will lead to major political transformations in several Arab countries, says the editorial.

This line of thinking may also believe in the U.S. intention of eradicating old inheritances through the imposition of an American-style democracy. The doors will thus be opened to the winds of change from the West to bring about political modernity in the Arab world, adds the editorial.

Does all this have any meaning? Indeed it does, answers the editorial. It simply says that the Arab will is currently inactive and it seems that the Arab world is in a state of sleep or a coma.
Perhaps the war will end in six weeks or months as American Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, has announced.

But we will certainly find the region completely altered, although not better than what it used to be. In fact, our main issue of concern - the Palestinian issue - will be one of the victims of these forthcoming changes. The question, concludes the editorial, is whether the Arab will has the capacity and the strength to say its piece before our future is determined by others.
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Indeed, let us avoid getting involved in a 'negative' debate on whether or not the war on Iraq is inevitable, advocates Dr. Mohammed Al Saeed Idris in Al Khaleej (UAE). We should be convinced that change in Iraq is inevitable whether the means used is war or otherwise, he adds.

There are two main issues regarding this change, believes Idris. First, Iraq's interests should not be left solely in American hands. Secondly, the 'new' Iraq should not become the launching pad for the 'American plan for change'. Establishing the 'new' Iraq should be a supportive base for Arab interests and not vice versa.

It is evident that Arabs are absent from discussions regarding the future of Iraq. This is out of fear that anyone who becomes involved in such discussions will be labelled as being supportive of the American plan for change, argues Idris.

But such an absence eliminates any Arab involvement in planning the future since Washington believes that the change in Iraq is only the beginning. This change is part of a grand plan to transform the Arab countries in particular and the Middle East in general, argues Idris.

American proposals for a 'changed' Iraq are aplenty, whereas we have not heard of a single Arab proposal on the matter. The reason, explains Idris, is that Arabs fear being accused of having taken part in the American plans if they voice their opinions on the matter. But the more important reason, says Idris, is the fact that such parties have realised that they are also on the list of America's 'agenda of change' and not just Iraq.

Indeed, the dangers surrounding the Arab world are many, the most critical being those that will follow the changes in Iraq, says Idris. Unquestionably, this is the most conspicuous danger of all, where imposing on the region the American perspective for the Middle East is a prelude to imposing the American plan on a universal level, concludes Idris.
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In discussing the issue of changes in Iraq, Dr. Shamlan Al Issa highlights the role that will be played by the Gulf countries following these changes.

Writing in Al Ittihad (UAE), Al Issa says that the first phase of change is when a new ruling system comes into being in Iraq. Without exception, all Gulf countries will offer humanitarian help to the Iraqi people by providing them with food and medicine.

Furthermore, these countries will play an active role in convincing the U.S. and the UN Security Council of the importance of stationing international troops in Iraq in order to avoid the outbreak of a civil war.

The second phase will be that of rebuilding Iraq, says Al Issa, in which the Gulf countries will also become involved.

But the Gulf countries will face many issues and problems when it comes to dealing with the 'new' Iraq. In particular, explains Al Issa, when it comes to issues such as the formation of a new constitution, the building of civil society institutions, the establishment of political parties and the call for elections. How will the Gulf countries deal with a democratic Iraq is the question, adds Al Issa.

In addition, there is the issue of changing allegiances - a natural outcome - according to Al Issa. The newly-born allegiances will revolve around Iraq and the U.S. Hence, the Gulf countries have to accept the fact that it will be Iraq and not they who will become America's major ally in the coming era, insists Al Issa. These countries have to speedily take the initiative in terms of their relationship with the U.S. before it is too late.

Al Issa explains that Palestinian issue is at the core of any upcoming changes. He argues that the U.S. will undoubtedly push the new Iraq towards normalising relations with Israel. There is, indeed, a possibility that the U.S. will advance a proposition that will bring Iraq, the Gulf countries and Turkey into a security alliance.

Iran and Yemen may also be invited to become members, predicts Al Issa. Such an alliance will have important economic, political and military implications. In fact, Israel may also become part of the alliance if peace in the region is achieved, concludes Al Issa.