Letter from Delhi: Psephology takes on astrological overtones

Not long ago it was not uncommon for leading politicians to have more than one horoscope. While their genuine one was for their own benefit, the fraudulent one, or to use a more current metaphor, the Ajit Jogi one, was meant to confuse their rivals.

The late Babu Jagjiwan Ram was said to have circulated not one, not two, but as many as six horoscopes which kept rival astrologers and senior Congress politicians always guessing.

Congressmen might mock at HRD Minister Murli Manohar Joshi for wanting to introduce astrology in the curriculum of select universities, but the truth is that most of them have their own favourite astrologers, palm readers, tantriks, soothsayers, et al.

Whether astrology is a science or sheer humbug, the jury is still out, but there is near unanimity that psephology is a near-science which despite imperfections can predict fairly accurately the outcome of an election.

But not surprisingly the advent of psephology in India has led to the proliferation of polling agencies which, depending on the predilections of their paymasters, predict voter behaviour for the asking. Thus not unlike the fake horoscopes of leading politicians, now we have fraudulent opinion polls conducted by psephologists close to individual politicians or parties.

Major players in the forthcoming Assembly elections have had opinion polls conducted by their trusted psephologists. For instance, the Chhattisgarh Chief Minister, Ajit Jogi, reportedly commissioned the services of two polling agencies which, unsurprisingly, predicted a thumping victory for him.

Since money was no consideration for Jogi, the pollsters were handsomely rewarded for their services. According to reports, even Jogi's Madhya Pradesh counterpart, Digvijay Singh, has had a private poll conducted which again gives him a close victory over a resurgent BJP under the leadership of the energetic but mercurial Uma Bharti.

But it is the detailed caste- and constituency-wise survey/analysis done for the BJP by a leading opinion poll agency which makes the most interesting reading.

Commissioned by the BJP General Secretary, the go-getter Pramod Mahajan, the survey is the most painstaking ever which predicts voter behaviour in each constituency depending on the caste composition of the electorate in each Assembly segment. So thorough is the survey that it pinpoints the percentage of say, Brahmins and their traditional caste rivals in a given constituency.

For instance, the caste play in Rajasthan is not merely between Rajputs and Jats but also between Gujjars and Meenas, and Banias and Yadavs, Bhils and Saharias, Grasiyas and Gametis, Meghwals and, Raigars, Birwas, and so on and so forth.

So diverse and complicated is the caste profile of each state that if the survey is to be put to optimum use then in all fairness psephologists and not politicians should have the last word on the distribution of party tickets, especially given the fact that post-Mandal the polity has become fragmented on sheer caste lines.

Traditionally too tickets were distributed keeping in view the general caste profile of each constituency but after the advent of psephology it seems there is no need for ground-level inputs from senior leaders, their job could well be done by the polling firms.

As against the usual opinion polls which are based on a small sample of about three to seven thousand voters with each caste given its aggregate percentage and then the expected swing and multiplier factor factored into it, the Mahajan-commissioned survey literally polled each and every Assembly constituency. The sample in MP was 1.36 lakhs; Chhattisgarh 72,000; Delhi 1.4 lakhs and in Rajasthan 1.8 lakhs.

And in terms of seats the survey predicts 125 seats for BJP as against 75 for Congress in Rajasthan; in M.P. it is 164 seats for the BJP and 58 for the Congress; in Delhi the respective tally is 33 and 35 while in Chhattisgarh it is 48 for the BJP and 40 for the Congress. In other words, barring Delhi, where the contest is really close, the BJP is set to win the other three northern States due to go to the polls on December 1.

Bollywood star Shah Rukh Khan wants to import replica guns for his under production film, Main Hoon Na, in order to give a realistic touch to the fight sequences.

The sniper style air soft guns complete with trigger, sling swivel, magazine, select fire switch, barrel, scope rail mount, optional bipod, etc, are made in Germany and are to be used for war scenes in Shah Rukh's home production.

Shah Rukh plays the main lead along with Sushmita Sen and Sunil Shetty.