Intelligence focusing on Saddam in buildup

U.S.and British intelligence analysts are closely monitoring Iraqi President Saddam Hussain, watching as he appears publicly to embrace UN inspections while wooing Europeans and seeking to rally fellow Arabs in the face of the American military buildup.

As U.S. forces continue to strengthen in anticipation of possible war, the Western intelligence community is producing estimates for policymakers of the Iraqi leader's potential actions, attitudes and intentions in the event of an attack. Since Hussain lives within a secluded and closely guarded environment, these analyses are highly speculative, senior administration officials said.

U.S. intelligence officials said they believe that while Hussain maintains a tight grip on his government, he could be overthrown by a military coup once U.S.-led ground troops were about to invade his country. "The expectation has been that the closer (Iraqi military leaders) perceive the end is near, the more willing people inside will be willing to raise their hands," one senior intelligence analyst said this week. He cautioned, however, that "it is unlikely to happen until after they hear guns start firing."

Miscalculations on anti-Hussain coups in the past have brought brutal retaliation, including death and torture, to hundreds and perhaps more than a thousand Iraqi officers - even many never involved in any plotting, a former CIA case officer said. "Attacks on Baghdad from cruise missiles and dropping of bombs alone, won't do the trick," the former officer said. "There have to be troops coming on the ground."

The intelligence community is also following Hussain's rare public appearances. Last Sunday, he received a delegation from Belarus headed by Nikolai Ivanchenko, the deputy head of President Alexander Lukashe-nko's administration.

Belarus is one of the few countries accused by the United States of selling prohibited weapons to Baghdad, and Michael Kozak, the U.S. ambassador to Belarus, made the charge openly last month at a conference in Washington sponsored by the American Enterprise Institute. He described Lukashenko as someone who has sold illegal arms to Iraq and thus chosen the wrong side in the war on terrorism.

Last spring, the State Department accused Belarus of training Iraqi forces to use antiaircraft systems, but at last month's meeting, Kozak said U.S. details on Lukashenko's arms transfers to Baghdad must remain secret to protect sources and methods of collection.

Previous UN inspections found that in the mid-1990s Belarus sold Baghdad machine tools capable of turning out components for missiles and high-speed centrifuges that Iraq could use to process highly enriched uranium used in bombs.

In 1998, UN inspectors saw similar machines in Iraq, although they were said to have been used to make lenses for artillery shells.

At Sunday's meeting, according to Belarus radio, Hussain told the Belarus delegation that he was getting little help from other countries in his efforts to lift the embargo on this type of machinery because of accusations that he was still making weapons of mass destruction. "We already told the world that we don't produce these kinds of ammunition, but the world doesn't seem to care," Hussain was quoted as saying.

Iraq's news service reported that Hussain then promised Ivanchenko "huge reciprocal cooperation" with Belarus in the future. Last October, Baghdad moved to build up relations with Saudi Arabia, among other countries, playing host to Saudi businessmen for the first time since 1990's invasion of Kuwait. Two weeks ago telephone links between the two countries were re-established and this week Baghdad announced $44 million in contracts for vehicles, milk powder and air conditioners.

Iraq's Trade Minister, Mohammed Mahdi Saleh, appeared on Al Jazeera earlier this week calling on all Arab countries to help his country.

© Los Angeles Times-Washington Post News Service