If intifada goes on, Israel will be humbled

A Hebrew University professor in Occupied Jerusalem has said that if the intifada goes on, Israel will be defeated just as surely as what had happened to the Americans in Vietnam and the Soviets in Afghanistan.

Van Creveld, a professor of History, believes that Israel is militarily strong, but its spirit is weakening and unless it ends occupation, it will not survive.

In his book, The Sword and the Olive: A Critical History of the Israeli Defence Force, Creveld stated that "no matter what comes out of the current cease-fire negotiations, the future of Israel looks bleak.

"This may seem a strange thing to say about a state, which, on paper, possess one of the most powerful armed forces on earth. But it is Israel's very strength that is working against it now," he said.

The Jeddah-based English language daily Arab News quoted Creveld as saying that at the beginning of the 20th century there were just 50,000 Jews in the Holy Land, forming less than 10 per cent of the population.

"From that modest start, Israelis spent almost their entire history, fighting and growing, and growing and fighting. Faced with the prospect of annihilation, Israelis had no choice but to fight and prevail. As a result, they developed a military and a fighting spirit that, particularly between about 1956 and 1980, became the envy of the world," he added.

Now, David has become Goliath. In 1982 Israel invaded Lebanon, a country which at that time was little more than a collection of militias, none of which had a single modern tank. Since then the mighty Israeli army has fought nothing but enemies weaker than itself. That has sapped the national spirit and led to sharp internal divisions.

"The signs of weakness are everywhere. Israel's troops have become so dispirited that they pursue Palestinians while riding in 60-tonne tanks. Other soldiers appear afraid to expose themselves to harm, and send Palestinian civilians to knock on doors in the refugee camps.

Week in and week out, Israeli soldiers are photographed weeping over their comrade's graves; yet each Palestinian casualty brings out thousands of mourners who shout for revenge.

"Palestinian motivation is so strong - created by 30 years of occupation - that even women have begun to act as bombers.

"It is true that by this calculus, much more Palestinian blood will flow than Jewish, a fact that should make Arafat pause. In the long run, however, it is Israel that has no escape. Should the uprising go on, then Israel will be defeated just as surely as the Americans were beaten in Vietnam, the Soviets in Afghanistan and so on," he said.

Defeat, of course, will not take the same form. There will be no column of tanks flying a Palestinian flag driving into Tel Aviv. Israelis will not leave the country and return to Diaspora as some Palestinians fondly hope.

What defeat does mean is that Israel, reeling under incessant blows, will cease to exist as a functioning polity. Nor will it simply be a question of Jews fighting Arabs.There is an excellent chance that the Intifada will spark off a civil war between Jews and Jews.

The story of modern Israel is unique. Now unless it does what has to be done, Israel stands in a grave danger of losing not just the struggle, but its soul.