GCC urged to form alliance with India and Pakistan

Gulf Arab states should get closer to India and Pakistan and form an alliance with the two subcontinent giants to serve their interests and offset the growing military power of the neighbouring states Iran and Iraq, according to a UAE study.

But the six GCC countries should also try and use their strong links with Pakistan to persuade it to defuse tension with India to avert destruction on the grounds as New Delhi is militarily far superior, said the study, prepared by Abdullah Jumma Al Haj, Cultural Attache at the UAE Embassy in Washington.

Al Haj said the GCC, which controls nearly 45 per cent of the world's oil, felt the need for strong alliances outside the Gulf area following the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran and unstable relations with both Tehran and Baghdad.

"The GCC states now need regional links outside the Gulf, especially with the countries of the subcontinent, with a more emphasis on Pakistan given the similarity in their culture," he said in the study, published in the Public Affairs bulletin of the Abu Dhabi Crown Prince's office.

"The six countries should encourage and support Pakistan so it becomes strong. They should give priority to Pakistan in relations with the subcontinent, but at the same time they should not ignore their interests in other countries, mainly India. They have to deal with India on the basis of mutual interests."

Al Haj said the GCC governments make a serious mistake by thinking that the subcontinent is away from them and should be kept outside their concern. He urged the six nations to chalk out strategies for a strong relationship with those two countries and use that relationship to prevent an outbreak of war.

"The GCC countries should determine their priorities, taking into account short and long-term considerations. India and Pakistan should be given a special treatment and preference over other countries.

"The two countries have emerged as big regional powers and this should prompt the GCC states to ally with those countries as their neighbours in the Gulf are pushing ahead with building up their military capabilities which cannot be balanced by the GCC without having powerful external allies who have strong connection to the region," he said.

"Such an alliance should cover different fields. It is vital for the GCC nations to build strong ties with the armed forces of those two countries because the creation of a joint security area has become extremely important for all.

"Considering the uncertainty in the real objectives of some countries towards the Gulf region and the tense relations among several regional parties, especially between the GCC and neighbouring Iraq and Iran, a stronger and closer relationship with India and Pakistan will allow the GCC countries to expand options for them, achieve a more stable regional balance and ensure more secure and stable navigation routes to and from the region."

Al Haj said the GCC nations, which created their economic, defence and political group in 1981, should demonstrate more concern about the persistent tension between India and Pakistan and a possible war between the two nuclear powers.

"The GCC states should not just ask the question whether there will be a war or not. Personally, I believe they must show more concern about the possibility of the eruption of a conflict. I mean they should assume that war will break out because this will enable them to play a better role," he said.

"The GCC knows very well that the balance of power tilts in favour of India due to military, nuclear, human, economic, social and strategic factors, which make India a regional superpower.

"An outbreak of war can lead to the obliteration of Pakistan especially if we take into consideration the fact that Pakistan's attitude based on nuclear deterrence raises doubts.

"Pakistan's assumption that India will not attack it because it possesses nuclear weapons is inaccurate and disputable. In this respect, the GCC states can stop being over-sympathetic to Pakistan and opt instead to giving advice on such a problem.

"The continuous escalation by Pakistan in dealing with the Kashmir problem is an extremely worrying matter because I do not believe it is the right policy or a wise stand that had long characterised the wise men in the subcontinent."

Al Haj said the GCC countries should not ignore what is going on between the two Asian nations because they could be affected by the conflict.

"The GCC nations should not remain an onlooker. If a war erupts and nuclear weapons are deployed, the human and environmental damage will not be confined to India and Pakistan but reach all regional states, including the six GCC countries and Iraq and Iran.

"The situation in the subcontinent remains very serious although no major confrontations have taken place recently. But the GCC countries can try and prevent a conflagration at any price and by any means."