Fears temper hope in Afghan elections

When 12 million Afghans dip their fingers into black indelible ink on Sunday, a new era will start for their war-ravaged country.

The parliamentary and provincial elections will mark the end of the so-called Bonn process, the transition to a "broad-based, gender-sensitive, multi-ethnic and fully representative government" set out at a conference on the future of Afghanistan in December 2001 in the aftermath of the US overthrow of the Taliban.

A successful vote, with a high turnout and an absence of violence, would be a significant boost for US President George W. Bush. To keep the peace, 700 extra US troops have swelled the ranks of the 18,000 in the coalition.

Nato has deployed 2,000 extra troops to join the 8,000 serving in the UN-mandated International Security Assistance Force.

Holding a Western-style election in a mountainous country in the throes of an escalating insurgency requires determination more US troops have died this year in Afghanistan than in any year since 2001.

Imported paraphernalia

The world's fifth poorest country, Afghanistan has imported even its ballot paper. Antonov cargo planes have flown into Kabul with 1,100 tonnes of voting sheets made in the UK and Austria for distribution by donkey and camel to 26,000 high-altitude polling stations.

Sunday's election is intended to give Afghanistan legitimate institutions that provide a counterweight to the US-backed administration of President Hamid Karzai.

It is also meant to drive disarmament, the creation of political parties and the emergence of a culture of pluralism that rejects the use of violence and encourages female participation. A quarter of seats are reserved for women.

"Looking back at the successive stages of the political transition since 2001, this is indeed a remarkable achievement," says Jean Arnault, head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan.

"It illustrates that against the odds with failed institutions, high levels of militarisation and violent extremism calling on people to participate is a very powerful tool."

Yet many uncertainties challenge this idyllic vision of a democratic Afghanistan. Above all, there is the risk that Western countries regard the conclusion of the Bonn process as their cue to withdraw.

As in many post-conflict societies, sustaining even the facade of democracy will be impossible without international donors to bankroll attempts at free-and-fair elections.

That much was highlighted last month when Arnault was forced to go back to donor countries with a begging bowl for the last $30 million (Dh110 million) of the $159 million (Dh584 million) direct cost of the elections, an amount equivalent to more than half of the Karzai government's revenues of $300 million (Dh1.1 billion).

The EU, which is funding around 40 per cent of the cost, last week obliged with an extra 9.2 million euros (Dh41.29 million), leaving UNAMA still about $5 million (Dh18.35 million) short.

Afghanistan's dependence on international expertise and manpower as it enters the post-Bonn era is equally evident. US-dominated coalition forces rather than the Afghan National Army will carry out counter-insurgency operations for the foreseeable future.

Suffered for decades

Human resources problems abound in a country that has suffered decades of middle-class flight: a foreigner is even acting as chief electoral officer.

Acutely conscious of the West's history of forgetting its promises to Afghanistan, Karzai has approached UNAMA and other international partners with the proposal that a high-level conference a kind of Bonn 2 be held during the second part of January, shortly after the inauguration of the new parliament building, which is being built with Indian money.

Even if the insurgency in the south and east permits a free and fair vote, Sunday's elections will not provide the same kind of unifying event as the October presidential poll.

In form, Afghanistan may now be entering a new, post-Bonn era. But many of the old problems remain in the form of religious extremism, abusive warlords and the failure to provide farmers with an alternative to the poppy cultivation that accounts for 60 per cent of gross domestic product.

Afghanistan will soon gain a parliament but analysts say it remains far from becoming a functioning and sustainable democracy.