Election Focus: Loyalty change alters positions in Chakwal

In the Chakwal area, lying in the heart of the Punjab, where tradition still holds strong sway, families and clans (biradaris) appear to hold greater weight than political parties.

Indeed, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) success in this area during recent polls seems largely to be based on the factor of loyalty to powerful individuals and clans in the area rather than due to any belief in the party ideology or faith in its leadership.

The same would seem to be true for the PML. This area is dominated by clans and the major ones include the Awans and Rajputs.

The Sardar and Tamman families are dominant on the political scene of the district, and this means that political parties usually award tickets within these families. The emergence of the Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-e-Azam (PML-QA) will certainly have an impact on the poll process.

The creation of this group means that some loyalties have switched over to it, especially since the group is known to be backed by the authorities expected to form the next government.

The fact that Chakwal has a strong military tradition and sends many men to the army, also encourages this pro-military leaning in the area.

It is said that 'Chakwal looks to Islamabad‚ before deciding which way to vote,' and this time this factor will appear to be as true as at any previous time.

As in many other parts of the country, interest in the electoral process has remained limited in the area and the fierce campaigning witnessed in the past has not been seen.

However, in recent days there have been indications that the campaign is picking up, and as a result there has also been some increase in voter interest in the balloting.

As alliances shift as a result of the new political realities that have emerged, two staunch opponents of the past, Sardar Ghulam Abbas, once a prominent PPP leader in the area and now the district Nazim of Chakwal, and Gen. (retd.) Majid Malik, a federal minister in the government of Nawaz Sharif, have become political allies.

Another new alliance, Sardar Ghulam Abbas and Sardar Mumtaz Tamman, who are linked to traditionally rival families, have fielded joint candidates on Chakwal's two National Assembly (NA) and four Provincial Assembly (PA) seats.

Interestingly, in one NA constituency the Sardars are supporting PML-QA candidates while in other constituency they are supporting an independent panel against the PML-QA, again indicating that parties are not the primary factor in determining support, at least in this area.

In NA-60-Chakwal-I, there is a tough contest between leading columnist and PML-N candidate Ayaz Amir and PML-QA's Major (retd.) Tahir Iqbal, the nephew of Gen. Majid Malik, a senior leader of PML-QA.

Tahir Iqbal is in fact based in the U.S. and is banking on Majid Malik to get into the parliament.

Pakistan People's Party Parliamentarian (PPPP) candidate Sardar Khurram Nawab can also benefit from the division of the PML vote-bank and emerge as a surprise winner.

The other candidates include Mohammed Nawaz Malik of the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (PTI), Sahibzada Nasir Jamil of the Muttahida Mahaz-e-Amal (MMA) and Raja Naseeb Khan, independent.

Apart from a strong family backing in the area, Ayaz Amir has the backing of two MPAs who were once supporters of his rival, Gen. Majid Malik and this makes his standing a strong one.

However, the active backing of district Nazim, Sardar Ghulam Abbas once a staunch opponent of Majid Malik and the general's own hectic campaigning means the position of Major Tahir Iqbal has been improving gradually.

Majid Malik has won this seat five consecutive times before bowing out due to the recently-introduced graduation condition.

The opponents of Major Tahir allege that the district Nazim is leading his campaign in violation of the directives of the election commission and that the Nazim has accelerated development activities in the areas where PML-QA's position is threatened.

Similar complaints are also being voiced, it may be noted, in other parts of Punjab. PPPP candidate Sardar Khurram Nawab is, meanwhile, hopeful that he can retain the party's strong vote-bank in the area and then benefit from a division of PML votes.

It is unlikely that this tactic will be sufficient to bring him victory, however, given the strong showing of both the PML candidates representing its rival factions.

Sardar Khurram's father lost to Majid Malik in the 1993 elections with a small margin which widened in 1997.

Here, the PPPP and the PML-N are not targeting each other during the election campaign and this can also be a new factor affecting the final results.

The MMA's Nasir Jamil will take the religious vote, but it is thought not many other ballots. While the main attention in Chakwal is centred on the battle in NA 60, a contest for NA 61 is also interesting.

Two candidates, who are members of the same family, are taking on each other. The personalities of these two men, rather than their party affiliations, are in fact dominating the contest.

Former MNA and senior PML-QA leader Sardar Mansoor Hayat Tamman, who is a four time winner from this constituency for the PML-N, is locked in battle with Sardar Fiaz Tamman, a nephew of former PPP MNA, Mumtaz Tamman.

Indeed, after Sardar Mansoor Hayat switched over to the PML-QA, the PML-N could find no suitable candidate to award a ticket and as such it is not putting up any contestant here. Most of its voters will support Sardar Mansoor.

The PPP, meanwhile, awarded its ticket to Fiaz Tamman, but in a surprise move, he returned the ticket on the last day for the withdrawal of papers, altering the entire position here.

This means that both candidates here are in fact seen as pro-government‚ while the decision of Tamman to de-link from the PPP was a big blow for the party. Indeed, this has created a rift within the pro-PPP camp, with even some PPP's local organisers backing Tamman.

When Fiaz Tamman refused to contest on the PPP ticket, the party, therefore, had to field a new face, Syed Ejaz Shabbir Bokhari.

But despite having the arrow‚ symbol, Bokhari is seen as having virtually no chance in the polls and is largely unknown in the area. The MMA's Mohammed Amir is also contesting from this seat.

District Nazim Sardar Ghulam is in fact backing the independent candidate Fiaz Tamman against the PML-QA's candidate Mansoor Hayat Tamman on this seat and this too is adding a unusual dimension to the contest.

Fiaz Tamman is contesting with the electoral symbol of the crescent. He will undoubtedly benefit from the experience and influence of his uncle, Sardar Mumtaz Tamman, in the area, but Mansoor Hayat Tamman still has a better chance as the voters of the PML-N are also supporting him in the absence of an official party candidate.

Sardar Mansoor Hayat, who won this seat with a margin of over 40,000 votes in the 1997 elections, also enjoys the support of Malik Salim Iqbal, a former PML-N MPA and