Congress may decide the fate of Baath

Today, Syria's Baath Party will begin its regional congress, the tenth since the party was established in 1947.

The congress will be attended by about 1,350 delegates from all over the country.

In many ways, the congress will determine whether the other wing of Baathism can survive after the demise of its twin sister in Iraq.

No wonder that this congress is seen as the most important since the party took over power in Syria in 1963.

The present dilemma of party emanates from the fact that it has for long refused to recognise the changes which have taken place in the region and the world over the past decade.

Many Syrian Baathists claim that their party still enjoys wide public support and that it has survived greater upheavals, including the 1967 defeat by Israel, the collapse of the Soviet Union and, more recently, the American occupation of Iraq.

This optimism might be overstated this time not least because the party itself is in the eye of the storm.

Indeed, the party was very popular when it was first established. It emerged as a revolutionary movement, its main objective was to combat colonialism, social inequality and Arab disunity; hence its slogan: Arab unity, Freedom and Socialism.

For decades this slogan constituted a legitimacy formula for the Baath and through it the party won the support of the poor, the dispossessed and the angered masses at the loss of Palestine in 1948.

Yet, after coming to power in 1963 the party exhausted itself by internal rivalry and factionalism.

The conflict was mainly between the historic civilian leadership of the party and its military wing.

The conflict ended in 1970 when president Hafez Al Assad, the father of the current leader, took over power and eliminated most of his rivals. This policy led to the emergence of new leaders of lower class quality who represented not the dominant upper and middle-class values but radical ideologies.

Furthermore, since the mid-1970s the rule in Syria became increasingly authoritarian and Baathism became a mere mobilisation tool to control the state and rule over the masses.

The rebellion of the Muslim Brotherhood in the early 1980s turned Syria into a police state. Loyalty to the regime became the parameter for granting government jobs and privileges. By the time Bashar succeeded his father in 2000, socialism had become an outdated economic system.

For the past five years, Bashar struggled to redefine the role of the Baath Party and its relation with the state and society.

His success was limited, however. This time he hopes that significant reforms introduced, as the Baath Party's tenth regional congress, will allow him to fend off both domestic challenges and foreign threats while remaining in power. Will he succeed this time? We have to wait and see.

The writer is a lecturer in Media and International Relations at Damascus University.