Conflict of dangerous proportions

In response to the recent attack on the Indian army camp in Jammu in which 31 people died, India has asked Pakistan to recall its High Commissioner Ashraf Jehangir Qazi from New Delhi. The Indian government holds Pakistan directly responsible for a series of military attacks organised by terrorist organisations operating from Kashmir.

This incident has further raised the tension between the two countries, with the two countries preparing themselves for war. About one million soldiers are deployed along their frontiers, ready to act at any time. In the meanwhile, Pakistan has carried out three short-range missile tests. However, the international community still hopes war can be prevented. The visit of British foreign minister Jack Straw to Islamabad and New Delhi will, hopefully, convey a clear message to the two countries.

The following is a review of the Arab press' discussion of the latest development between India and Pakistan and the possibility of a military confrontation.

The recent visit of India's Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to Jammu and Kashmir can be considered an anticipation of war, writes Asharq Al-Awsat (UK-based) in its editorial comment.

Indeed, Vajpayee and his allies in the government fear that due to its participation in the international coalition against terrorism, Pakistan could regain the strategic role it used to have in the 1980s during the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. Another fear is that Pakistan could use the American financial aid of millions of dollars, originally intended for the development of its economy, on the modernisation of its artillery.

This move will lead, in the next decade, to the emergence of Pakistan as a major player in the balance of power in the Middle East region and the Indian sub-continent, extending to Iran, the Caspian Sea basin and central Asia, says Asharq Al- Awsat.

The visit of the British foreign minister to Islamabad and New Delhi should give both sides the clear message that any military conflict in Kashmir would mean a striking deviation from the principle of war against terrorism. That is why war should be prevented by all means.

Together with the international community, Pakistan should fight the terrorist groups who killed the Muslim separatist leader, Abdul Ghani Lone. These terrorist groups not only constitute a danger for India but also for Pakistan and the Kashmiri people, concludes Asharq Al-Awsat.

In its editorial comment, Al Jazeera (Saudi Arabia) says that any war between India and Pakistan could have more destructive repercussions than the three previous wars. The next confrontation could be disastrous, especially if nuclear weapons are used. Such a scenario envisages a disaster that could engulf the Indian and Pakistani territories and affect the whole continent, even reaching the Gulf region.

In such a climate of mutual accusations and tension, the option of nuclear weapons is not unthinkable. If the parties have recourse to weapons of mass destruction, the war will be total and its consequences unmanageable. In a region considered one of the poorest in the globe, where 40 per cent of the population lives below the poverty line, the economic resources should be exploited for development instead of destruction, concludes Al Jazeera.

Writing along the same lines, Al Bayan (UAE) says in its editorial comment that both countries should be more pragmatic. Instead of aggravating the situation, they should listen to the voice of reason and work towards defusing the tension in order to reach a peaceful settlement based on negotiation and dialogue, says Al Bayan.

Indeed, India and Pakistan need to adopt a new vision to resolve the issue of the disputed region of Kashmir, which has lasted for more than 50 years. Any viable solution should be based on guaranteeing the interests of each party, rather than resolving the problem in favour of one or the other, says Al Bayan.

The international community and countries with influence should mediate to stop the escalation and help implement a fair and final settlement of the Kashmir issue, adds Al Bayan.

But first India and Pakistan should admit the futility of any military confrontation as a preamble to a lasting settlement, concludes Al Bayan.

The U.S. and Israel are the only two countries that would benefit from a military conflict between India and Pakistan as they believe India will be the winner because of its military superiority, writes Al Khaleej (UAE) in its editorial comment.

Thus, Pakistan has no chance of being backed by the U.S. if a war were to take place between the two countries. On the contrary, President Bush expects Pakistan to fight the terrorist groups operating from Kashmir, condemn the border infiltrations, and give guarantees to India in this regard.

Despite the gravity of the situation, the American administration has not interfered until now to stop the escalation between the two neighbours. It seems that the U.S. is willing to impose more pressure on President Musharraf to force him to react promptly and more effectively to eradicate terrorism in Kashmir, adds Al Khaleej.

On the other hand, a war between India and Pakistan would mean more benefits for the American arms factories as the U.S. supplies arms to both countries. If a war were to take place, it would deplete their stocks, forcing them to purchase more American armaments, says Al Khaleej.

Israel is also taking part in the campaign against Pakistan, which it considers "a nuclear Islamic enemy" that must be eliminated, concludes Al Khaleej.