Comment: Saddam's choice - Disarm or die

With this week's completion of a UN resolution giving Iraq a "final opportunity" to surrender its weapons of mass destruction, Saddam Hussain faces a stark choice: Disarm or die. In truth, they both amount to the same thing. Hussain is finished, and many Iraqis seem to understand that this story is now moving into its endgame.

Having insisted that he does not possess any weapons of mass destruction, how can the Iraqi leader now turn these supposedly nonexistent weapons over to U.N. inspectors?

Yet, if he fails to do so, the United States - convinced by its intelligence reporting that such weapons do exist - will launch a military attack to disarm him by force. Because of Hussain's defiance, this U.S.-led attack will have broader support now than it would have had two months ago.

A faction within Hussain's government is said to be urging him to comply with the U.N. resolution. Give up the weapons, they are supposedly telling the Iraqi leader. The real source of Iraqi power is the country's scientific and technical expertise, they contend, which will still be there in a few years when the Americans have forgotten about Iraq again.

But nobody in Hussain's inner circle is thought to be advocating compliance, and for a simple reason: They know that if he reversed course and gave up the weapons he has secretly been accumulating for so many years, it would amount to a disastrous loss of face.

The regime's authority would crumble - and Hussain, his family and inner circle would be more vulnerable than ever to attack.

Reports of a slow-motion disintegration of Hussain's regime are making their way to the West. They can't be called "reliable" information - nothing people tell you about Iraq really deserves that status - but they are suggestive of what's going on inside the country.

The first sign of discord is the debate that's said to be taking place within the leadership over what to do about the new U.N. inspections regime. Obvio-usly, the faction arguing for compliance senses that the only alternative is a war Iraq would lose.

A second sign of internal confusion is that some prominent Iraqis are said to be preparing for the end - by getting their money and their families out of the country to safe havens that were prepared long ago for just such an eventuality.

A third sign of the coming storm is that some prominent Arab businessmen are said to be positioning themselves for the change of regime - and the postwar boom that is likely to follow.

The Arab world may be uncomfortable with U.S. policy toward Iraq, but people recognise a business opportunity when they see one. From mobile telephony to manufacturing to infrastructure, there is a new Iraq waiting to be built.

A final sign of the approaching endgame is that officers of key Republican Guard units are said to be weighing their options.

Whether this American policy of restraint and inclusiveness will persuade the Shiites of southern Iraq not to tear their local Baath Party representatives limb from limb is another story. But let it be said, fear of revenge can be a powerful motive to switch sides early.

Some analysts are claiming that this process of defection is well underway. I don't believe it.

Keep your eye on Saddam Hussain as he is pushed inexorably toward the corner. I suspect that once the U.N. inspection regime is in place, he's a loser - either way he moves. The danger is, how many Americans, Israelis and Arabs will he take down with him? The Iraqi leader has an endgame strategy, too. We just don't know what it is.