Chattha tipped as 'dark horse' for PM

While the various political parties in the country wind up their electoral campaigns, it would seem that it is ongoing discussions in the echelons of power within Islamabad that may lead to a decision as to who will be the next prime minister.

The military regime is apparently eager to come up with a candidate who is 'non-controversial', and will, practically speaking, be willing to work alongside President Pervez Musharraf.

According to a report published in the English-language weekly, The Independent, the quiet parliamentarian and farmer from Gujranwala, Hamid Nasir Chattha, may be the man who is most likely to emerge as the front-runner for the job.

This would mean that other, apparently more likely candidates, such as Mian Azhar, former president Farooq Leghari, former National assembly speaker Ilahi Bux Soomro and a number of former federal ministers would find themselves left out in the cold.

It is in fact understood that the Musharraf regime has already decided that Mian Azhar is "not a candidate" for the top job in the country.

It has been noticed that the administrative backing for him on the two key National Assembly seats he is contesting in Lahore and Sheikhupura seems to be dwindling, apparently due to "orders from the top."

The Azhar camp itself is said to be "quite concerned" about this. The reasons for rejecting Azhar seem to be rooted in the fact that his personality is thought of as "unsuitable for a man holding the post of prime minister."

Sources in Islamabad said "it is agreed Azhar lacks calibre."

The fact that the powerful Chaudhrys of Gujrat, led by former interior minister Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, have also lined up against Azhar is another factor going against him.

With the Chaudhrys themselves chiefly interested in securing the job of Punjab chief minister for Chaudhry Pervaiz Illahi, they are said to have proposed former speaker Ilahi Bux Soomro, from Sindh, for the job.

Soomro in fact is said not yet to have been "ruled out all together." He himself is in fact stated to be confident that he will get the job after winning his own seat in interior Sindh.

However, the fact that Soomro is accused of corruption while he was communications minister under Nawaz Sharif is said to go against him.

Also, as yet, the regime seems uncertain whether it would like to see a candidate from a minority province, such as Sindh, hold the prime ministership, or whether they would feel more comfortable with Chattha in this seat.

Other candidates for this job included Farooq Leghari. He has however apparently been rejected because it is perceived that in a parliament within which the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) are both well-represented, Leghari would immediately be greeted with great hostility, given his past fallout with the governments of both parties.

The fact that Leghari is also accused of corruption is an additional factor against him.

Former federal Education minister Zubaida Jalal from Balochistan was also seen as a possible candidate for prime minister, favoured by Musharraf.

By bringing forward Zubaida, the military regime would usher in the first prime minister from Pakistan's smallest province, while the fact that she is a woman would be seen as a further 'plus point', at least internationally.

Musharraf's aides are, however, said to have advised him that Zubaida has "no following of her own," and would thus be seen as a 'puppet leader'. She is, therefore, said to be out of the running despite her reputation for honesty, competence and a firm administrative style.

The leader of the PPP Parliamen-tarians Amin Makhdoom Fahim was also seen as a possible contestant. However, the fact that he is so closely associated with Benazir Bhutto and has refused to distance himself from her is thought to have gone against him.

As a result of these factors, it would seem that the Cambridge-educated Chattha, who has family links with top bureaucrats and the social elite, may find himself holding the office of prime minister.

He is said to have been "sounded out" and to have shown a "firm willingness" to take on this job.

The fact that Chattha will have almost no party members alongside him in parliament is in fact also seen as a point in his favour and it is thought that he may be entrusted with the task of "uniting all the PML factions", and merging his own faction, the PML-C, with this group.

As such, considerable attention is now focused on Chattha's NA-100 seat in Gujranwala, and it is said "allout efforts are on to ensure a victory for him."

In choosing Chattha, the military regime is said to have "carefully considered past history," including the reasons why rifts developed between the establishment and even 'hand-picked' candidates, and they are confident that, with Chattha, such pitfalls can be avoided.