The wagons have been drawn into a circle and the cavalry's sharpshooters, anxious eyes peering through slit-holes, await with beating heart the attack of the Red Indians.
The wagons have been drawn into a circle and the cavalry's sharpshooters, anxious eyes peering through slit-holes, await with beating heart the attack of the Red Indians. We can see the dismounted cavalry behind the wagons. But where exactly are the Red Indians? Hidden behind which high mountains?
Each passing day reveals in clearer outline a startling paradox: in an uncertain situation the only thing certain is the anxiety of a befuddled government. A government prone to inventing dangers or seeing dangers where none exist. Or which exist only in the insecurities of the military mind.
No other explanation suffices for the government's actions in the political sphere. Of what is it afraid? What Red Indians is it fortifying itself against? The president is all set to be the most powerful figure in the new political set-up being designed by his various constitutional technicians, chief among them the much commented-upon General Naqvi. The prime minister will walk in his shadow, the prime minister having no other choice knowing that he will serve at the president's pleasure.
Over the National Assembly will perpetually hang the sword of dismissal. Even otherwise that body will be packed with loyalists. Somewhere on top will hover the National Security Council, with the service chiefs sitting in it keeping a beady eye on civilian goings-on. So what are Pakistan's generals afraid of?
Not to forget another factor, President Musharraf will also keep riding his other horse as army chief. This is the ultimate guarantee of his security and survival, the one plank against which political parties find themselves helpless. And yet even after fitting himself with all this armour, General Musharraf seems to be walking in dread of the future. At least this is the impression his actions betray.
Forget about the extraordinary shroud of security which has come to surround his person, the double and triple sets of Mercedes cars in which he now usually travels. That is, when he travels at all because he has cancelled several travel plans lately out of security concerns. These precautions are related to the terrorist backlash the country is facing as a result of the war against extremist elements. If religious extremists can strike at churches, consulates and schools they will not stop short of hitting other targets given half the chance. So it is only natural that the president's security should be upgraded.
Slaughter
But the slaughter we are seeing in the constitutional arena has nothing to do with jihadi concerns or any war on terror. It is related to the terror about the future lurking in the minds of the present holders of power. That this is irrational hardly needs emphasising. Taking precautions against the followers of Sheikh Omar or any jihadi organisation is one thing. Taking extraordinary precautions against the people of Pakistan is an altogether different matter.
The fear arising from the motives or actions of the jihadi organisations can be put in quantifiable terms. There are hardcore elements who are terribly upset by Pakistan's collaboration with the United States in its war against Al Qaida and its supporters. To vent their anger and undermine the Musharraf government these elements can be expected to do anything. This is a tangible threat and to meet it tangible precautions can be taken. Hence, among a whole range of other measures, the heightened security around the president's person.
But the fear consuming the military government regarding the future and the uncertainties of the political process is harder to define because it is a form of paranoia. Hence the difficulty in deciding when enough is enough. Starting with the referendum and then going on to the projected amendments in the constitution, layer over layer of precaution is being devised to keep the future in check, to see that it does not get out of hand. Still the germs of doubt and insecurity lodged firmly in the military mind are not being eradicated.
This is a pity because by suspecting the Pakistani people and falling prey to nameless anxieties, the military government has already blown what might have been an historic opportunity. By holding open elections and allowing everyone to participate (what castles would Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto have demolished?) and then, even as Gen. Musharraf remained president, allowing for a transition to civilian rule would have given Pakistan the stability which has so long eluded it.
Referendum or no referendum, there is no real dispute across the political spectrum about Gen. Musharraf continuing as president armed with substantive powers. Musharraf as president, a popularly-elected leader as prime minister. The political parties chastened and therefore acting with greater responsibility. The National Assembly restored to its position as the fount of executive authority but, heeding the lessons of past failures, acting more wisely than in the past. The armed forces back to where they belong. The nation united and collectively turning its back upon the follies and extremist aberrations of the Zia years.
Given a modicum of vision, this was the choice the military government could have made. Instead of which it has opted for the easier solution: battening down the hatches and tightening controls on the political process. In other words, reaching into the past and seizing some of its failed nostrums. It might have been supposed the army leadership would have learnt from experience. But clearly old habits die hard and vision is not a commodity you can buy off a supermarket shelf. Thus the shambles of the Naqvi reforms which are destined to drive another stake through the heart of a sorely-tried nation.
There is a class of Pakistanis mostly living abroad who depressed by gloom-and-doom stories from home want desperately to hear something good about their country. Their concerns are understandable but they should ask themselves about the wisdom of painting a fundamentally unwholesome situation in bright colours. Will the paint job alter the underlying reality? Bad tidings no one likes but the answer to this is to change the nature of the tidings not shoot the messenger.
Old arguments
Whatever the reasons for Gen Musharraf's coup three years ago there being no point in raking up old arguments the necessity before Pakistan is to move ahead, leaving the discontents of the past behind. There is no quarrel between the army and the people. Neither ideological nor political. Why must then the army command discover enemies behind every bush? Why must it conjure up threats where none exist? Why must it think of the political parties as adversaries when these should be looked upon as partners in the business of national consolidation?
That the political parties need to get their thinking straight is clear. In their behaviour there should be no room for the shenanigans of the nineties, the mutual bloodletting and the poor performance in government which paved the way for the present military takeover. But the army command has to clear some cobwebs from its mind too. The army in government is a doomed enterprise, destined to fail. There is no scope for the Indonesian model here, a model which has been Indonesia's ruin. Where lies Indonesia's oil wealth? Squandered by a corrupt elite
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