Bush: Change in Iraq will have ripple effect

President George W. Bush was to say last night that a change in government in Iraq will have a ripple effect in the Middle East and make it easier to achieve peace between Israel and the Palestinians, White House officials said.

His speech to the American Enterprise Institute comes as Arab states are angry about the prospect of war, fearing it could destabilize the already volatile Middle East and further complicate the Israeli-Palestinian crisis. His words also could send a chill down the spines of some of the non-democratic leaders in the region.

In what the White House called a big-picture speech, Bush is to lay out a vision of the region in the event war is necessary to disarm Iraq of suspected weapons of mass destruction and topple Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said Bush will say what the future may hold not only for Iraq but also the security of the region, "because the president believes that a free Iraq will lead to a more stable Mideast."

"He'll talk about how a different Iraq will make it easier to achieve peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians," he said.

The president, in remarks to Hispanic American activists, denounced Saddam for piecemeal disclosure of weapons he initially said he never had. "He is a master of disguise and delay. He'll say, 'Oh, I'm disarming' -- after he said he has no arms," Bush said.

The Wednesday night speech represented another sign of a looming war with Iraq, with the United States insistent that the United Nations Security Council approve a new resolution that would clear the war for a conflict or else Washington will act with a coalition of allies without U.N. support.

Bush lobbied for the U.S., British and Spanish draft resolution in a phone call to Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien, whose government offered a compromise proposal that would set March 28 as the deadline for Iraqi compliance with U.N. disarmament demands.

Bush's government wants the Security Council to approve a new resolution setting the stage for war shortly after U.N. weapons inspectors give their latest report on Iraqi compliance March 7. France, Russia and China want inspectors to be given more time.

Fleischer, asked if the Canadian proposal was discussed, said Bush has offered a resolution "that he thinks is the way to go," and was confident in the end that "his position will be accepted and voted on."

The U.S. budget, already in deficit over a recession and the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, will take another blow from the cost of a conflict.

Administration and congressional sources said the cost of a war with Iraq could balloon to $95 billion, far more than the $61 billion estimated earlier.

The $95 billion would be to cover a war, its aftermath and new expenses to fight terrorism, the officials said. While not confirming the numbers, Fleischer said Bush would quickly send a supplemental request to Congress seeking money to pay for the war in the event hostilities break out.

Administration officials, in addition, said hundreds of names of the Iraqi elite were being compiled in order to separate hard-core allies of Saddam from workaday bureaucrats and hold to account those who might participate in a chemical or biological attack against invading forces or neighbors.

"We believe the vast majority of Iraqi officials are not part of Saddam Hussein's clique, and they've just been trying to do their jobs. We expect they'd be able to continue to do their jobs when Saddam and his cronies are gone," said Fleischer.

"As for Saddam and his cronies, they're not like everybody else. There may be other groups that are thinking about whether they want to be like Saddam and his cronies, or whether they want to disobey the cronies. Disobeying the cronies would be good advice," he said.

What to do with Saddam's ardent supporters was undecided. One possibility was war crimes trials.

Bush's speech came as the European Union prepared on Thursday to call on Washington to put new energy into Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking by immediately releasing a "roadmap" for the creation of a Palestinian state within three years.

Release of the roadmap has been put off for months at U.S. insistence to avoid pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon during last month's general election and then his negotiations on forming a new government.

Bush's speech was also expected to address how the United States would address a humanitarian crisis that could develop as a result of a war.

U.S. officials said this week that blankets, water, tents, medicine and other supplies for up to 1 million people were being sent to the region, and nearly 2.9 million daily rations were being stockpiled to meet emergency food needs.