Arabs, Europeans mobilising exit plan for Saddam

As the military squeeze tightens around Iraq, Arab leaders and the European Union have quietly begun mobilising last-minute initiatives to avert a U.S.-led war, according to American, European and Arab officials.

Arab envoys are talking behind the scenes about Iraqi President Saddam Hussain's political future, while the European Union announced plans on Wednesday for a mediation mission to the Middle East early next month.

The prospect of success, at this advanced state of play, basically boils down to a single question: Would the Iraqi leader be willing to surrender power?

The Bush administration appears to consider that an option, several U.S. officials have said this week. After declaring that war is not inevitable, Defence Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said Tuesday: "The first choice would be that Saddam Hussain would pick up and leave the country tonight. That would be nice for everybody.''

At the State Department, spokesman Richard A. Boucher said yesterday, "It's an option that we would all hope he would take advantage of.''

The response from Iraq, however, is a blustery and definitive "no way.'' A top Iraqi diplomat denounced the growing number of rumours as "nonsense'' and a "canard'' in a psychological war against Baghdad.

"I'd like to assure you that Saddam will continue to defend his homeland. He is one of the leaders who will never leave his country and will fight till the last drop of blood,'' said Abbas Khalaf, Iraq's ambassador to Russia.

Yet there are growing rumblings in both Europe and the Arab world about Saddam stepping aside and leaving Iraq as a way to end the showdown.

The Arab effort is still in its early stages, but several governments are determined to look for a way to avoid hostilities and potential regional destabilisation, envoys from the region said Wednesday.

"There is a feeling of panic and frustration in the region now, and we hope we will be given a chance to try something. We can't just sit still and not try to find a way out,'' said one Arab foreign minister.

The talks are in such early stages that no country is willing to go on the record as being involved. "The question is not who will take him, but will there be an offer that can satisfy both Saddam and the United States? Because the U.S. wants not just the man but the system to go. How do you work out an arrangement like this?'' the foreign minister said.

"And suppose he goes out. Who takes his place - someone he chooses? That's not something the United States will accept.''

But Arab diplomats also say that Washington has not provided an acceptable "exit strategy,'' which is stymieing any concrete offer the Arabs can put on the table.

The biggest obstacle is the issue of whether to hold Saddam accountable for war crimes and other crimes against humanity during his 23-year rule in Iraq, as well as in the 1980-88 war with Iran and the 1990-91 invasion of Kuwait.

To get him to abandon Iraq, Saddam will want guarantees that he will not face extradition from exile for trial, Arab officials say. "We must expect the regime to attempt buying time for as long as it can - but dictators are known to value their lives, and their money, and we should not discount the possibility of him soliciting and accepting a refuge, if offered one, on the eve of the military campaign,'' said Barham Salih of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, one of two groups that run the autonomous Kurdish enclave in northern Iraq.

© Los Angeles Times-Washington Post News Service