Arab world faces spiralling joblessness

Unemployment in the Arab world is set to rocket sky-high by 2010 reaching record levels of 25 million. This is according to a latest report by the Arab Economic Unity Council (AEUC) which states if greater funds are not pumped into the economy, the jobless rate would continue to spiral.

The report puts the current rate of unemployment at 17.5 million, or 19.4 per cent of the 90 million strong-labour force. To offset unemployment, experts have long been arguing for greater investments, privatisation, and more openness to the world economy in a bid to strengthen competition and create more jobs.

Today, the rate of unemployment is part of a global phenomenon. Recent figures by the International Labour Organisation put the total number of unemployed in the world at 180 million, 20 million more than the 2001 figure and up 80 million since 1990.

The ILO describes the rate as alarming and says, if it continues, it could lead to wide social unrest. It points out a further 550 million people earn $1 a day or less. Rising unemployment has hit all continents including the industrialised countries, Latin America and the Caribbean.

In the Arab world the rate of joblessness is related to the population increase in the region that today stands at 280 million and is one of the highest internationally, comprising 4.7 per cent of the world population.

The 2002 UN Arab Human Development Report estimates the population of the region will more than double by 2020 to reach between 400 to 460 million. This is a huge increase on the 1982 level of 155 million, jumping to 190 million in 1985 and 230 million by 1990.

Age factor

The report says 38 per cent of the current population of the region is under 14 years old. Put another way, other estimates suggest that 60 per cent of the Arab population is under the age of 24.

All this is exacerbating the level of unemployment. In Syria for example, unemployment went up from 88,000 in 1970 to 432,000 in the late 1990s.

The same goes for Morocco, registering a jobless rate of between 11 to 21 per cent, Tunisia 15 per cent, Algeria 21 per cent, Sudan 16 per cent, Jordan 17 per cent, Iraq was then 33 per cent.

In 1995 also, unemployment was at 12 million, 15 per cent of the total Arab force. More and more were entering the job markets than there was room for.

Today the situation continues to worsen. In Lebanon it is estimated at 15 per cent while it has risen to between 10 and 19 per cent of the workforce in Egypt, Morocco and Jordan and in excess of 25 per cent in Libya, Algeria and Yemen. In the West Bank, the rate is over 75 per cent while for Iraq it is above 50 per cent.

In the Gulf, unemployment seems to have risen in countries like Oman, Bahrain and in Saudi Arabia where the rate is estimated at 18 per cent.

The AEUC report says the reasons for high unemployment, which is the highest in the world, has to do with a growing number of job-seekers, low economic performance, poor economic guidelines and weak educational and training establishments.

Remedial measures

Concrete steps can be taken to curb the level of unemployment. One way is to attempt to reverse the capital outflow from the region, and attempt to re-attract the Arab capital that is already invested especially in American and European markets.

The AEUC report estimated in 2002, the level of Arab investments abroad stood at $ 1000 billion and they have formed a special committee to try and bring these funds back and persuade their owners to put these funds into productive use.

Such funds would go towards setting up projects for the five million jobs that would need to be created each year to stem the tide of unemployment as labour markets are set to expand by 2-3 per cent annually.

But this is only half of the story. An additional $33 billion would need to be invested to offset this level of unemployment and that 50 million jobs would need to be created by 2010.

Further to that, the economies of the Arab world would have to grow by seven per cent annually. It never registered that high except in the 1960s where it reached six per cent per year.

But this is overtly optimistic considering the fact economic growth for the 1990s was only three per cent per year which was marginally higher than the increase in the labour force.

Factfile
* Unemployment in the world is 180 million
* In the Arab world it is 17.5 million
* It is set to reach 25 million by 2010
* 50 million jobs must be created by 2010. This will require the Arab economy to grow by seven per cent.