Anatomy of a referendum

An objective assessment of the outcome of the referendum should leave no doubt in anybody's mind that the opponents of the referendum have been vindicated. The constant refrain of those opposing the Referendum was that General Pervez Musharraf would neither gain personally from it nor would the cause of democracy be advanced.

Through the referendum, which was at best going to be a non-event and at worse a case of rigged endorsement, a state sponsored certification for General Musharraf was sought. Ironically, it was a certification which he as the man in power did not need.

In the powerplay of Pakistani politics, General Musharraf had earned himself the reputation of a General with a difference. Naturally his military credentials and his entry through a coup compelled him on to the path of power accumulation, and some political manipulation was never going to allow the General complete legitimacy.

Despite criticism of Musha-rraf's referrendum, he was always, even if grudgingly, seen as the man who would play a constructive role in ensuring the return of democracy in Pakistan. It was a role many gave him in the default zones created by Pakistan's political class. The hijacking of the process by Pakistani military in collaboration with opposition politicians has prevented the maturing of Pakistan's political class.

Whatever the case may be today, Pakistan's political leaders have found themselves incapable of determining the political course of Pakistan. The only gain they appear to have made is through Musharraf's referendum blunder. In the post-referendum phase, the ARD seems to have gone into high gear.

It has placed a list of demands before the government, which include setting up of an independent election commission, and allowing Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif to return from self-exile. The ARD is planning an all-party conference to try and put pressure on the Musharraf government using the referendum issue.

Both the ARD and the Jamat-i-Islami are planning to issue white papers on rigging during the referendum. Press reports and independent accounts all point towards a free hand at polling booths throughout the country.

In deserted booths, polling agents sat stamping 'yes' on bunches of ballot papers. In Bhara Kahue and Abbottabad men and women cast multiple votes using multiple identity documents, including passports, driving licences and old and new identity cards.

In a polling booth in rural Abbotabad, relatives cast multiple votes on behalf of those residing in Islamabad. Voters of all ages cast their vote. It was a genuine 'free for all'.

For Musharraf's voters no questions were asked as long as the vote count was increasing. After all, it was an election without independent monitors, competing parties, a voters' list or strict Identity Card requirements.

Yet, PTV continuously reported a high voter turn-out. Competing claims were made by the Chief Election Commissioner and the Information Minister Nisar Memon. The CEC claimed a 71 per cent turnout, while Memon said "25 per cent is high and 30-35 per cent will be higher than our expectation".

Voter turn-out

The following day the Election Commission reported the turnout to be 56 per cent. Finally the tally revealed that Musharraf had been given more votes that the combined vote cast for Benazir and Nawaz Sharif during the last elections. It was also shown that the voter turn-out was even higher than the 1970 elections.

After casting his vote in Rawalpindi, General Musharraf told newsmen that the public had spoken through the referendum in favour of him and against the established political leaders. There was no sign of this having happened. At least not inside Pakistan.

Interestingly having been in Dubai on the referendum day watching Pakistanis come to vote for Musahrraf throughout the day and with a lot of enthusiasm was intriguing. The contrast between the home reaction and the reaction of expatriate Pakistanis was interesting.

Patriotism often peaks in foreign lands. Add to this the fact that expatriate Pakistanis were not exposed to the unfairness in the form of the referendum idea and procedure. General Musha-rraf should note factors like lack of interest, the knowledge that the outcome was determined before the referendum itself and that the people's basic sense of justice was being violated in the way the state moved in to ensure his success.

In the conduct of the referendum and its results, truth was a casualty. Fortunately, Pakistanis themselves spoke after the referendum and highlighted the other issues. Some feared that a casualty of this referendum-related phase could be the Musharraf government's tolerance.
The print media can no longer be successfully censored. It is now too difficult to gag, plus Musharraf himself tolerates difference of opinion.

Fortunately, his attacks on critics of the referendum later turned into an appreciation for their "different" opinion. However, within the state-controlled academia, the government of Punjab has acted in a highly controversial manner.

An associate professor of Urdu, Ajmal Niazi, in the FC College is being terminated because as a government employee he is not supposed to be involved in politics. Niazi had written a column in the local daily Din criticising the presidential referendum.

Whatever the technical interpretation of any law stopping government officials from writing, there is the question of the Punjab government's motive to remove Niazi. After all, those serving in government positions throughout Punjab have not been stopped from writing.

Those who have written in the press have not been terminated. Whatever legal cover the government may invoke for removing Niazi, his fault was that he criticised the referendum. Such thought control is never desirable.

In educational institutions, technically a place of inquiry, to hit back with such vengeance against one who expressed his opinion is unwise and inexcusable. The Punjab governor should change his decision. Niazi must continue in the position he has held for many years.

For Musharraf a review exercise on the referendum will produce instructive lessons. Three are important. One, political parties are not undependable allies. The last minute backing-out by MQM and the complete non-involvement of the ANP who ostensibly was supporting Musharraf, underline the complexity of politics.

Two, that credibility and support is built upon credible action not upon state-engineered referendums. Three, that the shifting sands of politics cannot be fully comprehended by men from the barracks used to functioning in controlled environments.

Failed to deliver

Interestingly even the nazims from the local government structure also failed to deliver. In fact, even earlier it was established at a meeting with the Punjab governor that the nazims could not deliver the desired numbers for the Lahore rally.

This prompted the provincial secretaries to assure the governor that they would do the needful. The bureaucracy produced the state employees at the Lahore referendum from the education, health, labour and other departments.

Against the backdrop of this controversial referendum, what are the choices before General