Analysis: Kuwait polls may act as a harbinger for change in Gulf

Kuwaiti democracy is in triumph because an estimated 80 per cent of all eligible voters (136,715 citizens) participated in last Saturday's elections.

Of course, Kuwait's national population stands at approximately 898,000 but, at is well known, women as well as some men have no access to suffrage.

Still, and while these elections are a clear indication of many democratic strides within Kuwaiti society, the exercise stands out as a warning to those who wish to Westernise the Gulf region at a fast pace.

Kuwaiti experts have quickly concluded that the newly elected Majlis Al Umma (National Assembly) will be "a weaker, quieter Parliament, causing less trouble for the government," and that the new Parliament will be "easy to handle."

The consensus is that this "is a pro-Kuwait parliament" that will opt for moderate policies. Yet, with a non-negligible Islamist victory (21 out of 50 total seats), Kuwaiti dem-ocracy may usher in a series of dramatic political changes both at home and throughout the region, including as a critical electoral model for Iraq when plebiscites are held there.

The Islamists' victory should not be dismissed as inconsequential because conservative groups with impeccable tribal roots gained 23 seats. Naturally, stalwart supporters of the government dominate, but the actual loss of so-called liberals (three seats down from eight) should stand as a clear indicator of potential difficulties.

Although the Islamic Constitutional Movement, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood lost a seat (now only with two representatives), Salafi groups gained sive seats, up one.

Shiite parliamentarians are down to five seats (from six) even if they fielded 50 candidates (out of a total of 250). Importantly, an estimated 24,000 Shiite citizens were eligible to vote and, according to anecdotal evidence, ma-ny exercised their right to cast ballots.

From Jordan to Iran and also in Bahrain and Qatar, critical participatory mov-ements have now meant that the Islamists are no longer satisfied with caretaker regimes.

Rather, they are increasingly demanding that those who are entrusted with authority to rule do so with several things in mind: administer with justice; govern efficiently; and disentangle their countries' destinies from larger but more determining factors, including an entanglement with the U.S. as the latter reshapes the area.

Ordinary Gulf citizens are increasingly talking about openness, both on internal matters as well as key foreign policy issues. That is surely a healthy aspect of democracy that should be applauded. Yet, as in all democratic experiments, governments must learn to accept the will of their electorates.

Sadly, Kuwaiti women – certainly qualified to exercise their basic right to vote – could not participate in the elections.

Now that the Islamists' hold over the National Assembly is set, the vote for women will probably be delayed further, and that is unfortunate even if the debate continues. A creative solution is needed to remedy this aberration as Muslims know that the Prophet Mohammed (PBUH) favo-ured equality among genders.

A parliamentary decision granting women the right will act as a good harbinger for other Gulf states where, inevitably, the day will come when participatory institutions will see light with universal suffrage for all adults.

Joseph Kechichian, author of several books, is an expert on the Gulf and Middle East affairs.