Analysis: A blow to peace efforts

If anyone had any doubts that there are powerful forces, determined to wreck the nascent Kashmir peace process that is underway, Abdul Gani Lone's assassination yesterday will set them at rest.

Lone was set to meet Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee today and set the ball rolling on what could have been the first initiative this year to break the logjam over Jammu and Kashmir, where tensions are already high over the killing in Kaluchak last week of soldiers and their families.

This is the one man who could have made a difference. Ergo, the man that had to be removed.

The question now is, whether the assassination of a man who was courageous enough to grasp the nettle of peace with India, will lead to what he most wanted to avoid – war. The battleground – Kashmir.

Lone had worked out two crucial parts of the Kashmir puzzle.

A key meeting in Dubai with the head of the Pakistan based Kashmir Council Sardar Abdul Qayyum had made far reaching progress.

Lone, along with fellow Hurriyat leader Mirwaiz Umer Farooq had the tacit acceptance of moderates in Pakistan to explore the parameters of a Kashmir peace process with fellow doves within the separatist 18-party All Parties Hurriyat Conference as well as other Kashmiris. This meant that Lone was no longer averse to working with the Indian authorities in starting a process of dialogue.

Secondly, as an advocate of an end to militancy, particularly the involvement of foreign militants whose brutal attacks on civilians he virulently condemned, he was one of the few who had strong links with elements in the only indigenous Kashmiri militant group, the Hizbul Mujahideen, and understood that several of these mujahideen wanted to come overground.

He supported moves by these fighters who wanted to give up the gun, end the cycle of violence and bring peace to the valley.

The split in the Hizbul Mujahideen which led to the expulsion of key field commander Abdul Majid Dar by the Pakistan-based leader of the Hizbul, Syed Salahuddin, underlined the huge schism between the thinking in the valley and their former masters across the border.

Dar was responsible for the unilateral ceasefire he had announced three years ago, which fell by the wayside. At the time, Lone, who survived three assassination attempts, was one of the few Kashmiri leaders who had supported the ceasefire call, which was later taken up by Vajpayee.

The only part of the puzzle that he had not yet worked out were the links with the Indian government, ham-handed so far, in its handling of the Kashmir crisis.

Vajpayee's appointment of K.C. Pant as Delhi's point man on Kashmir had not yielded expected results, but the arrival in Srinagar of A.S. Dullat, former spook and now Vajpayee's chief adviser on Kashmir affairs was different.

Dullat has long been the man that Kashmiri moderates have dealt with.

Lone, who headed the Jammu and Kashmir People's Conference Party, along with the Mirwaiz who was by his side when he died, was expected to have made some kind of an overture, albeit in secret, to Vajpayee.

Officials in the PMO were working on a package, although no one was willing to go public with them as yet.

"In a day, he would have started the process," a senior Kashmiri leader said.

"He was the only one who could have done it, apart from the Mirwaiz. And if the grenade had actually gone off, the Mirwaiz too would have been assassinated, killing the two men who were willing to break with the past, and work towards encouraging the Indian government to look at things from our perspective."

Lone in an interview to The Washington Post had indicated how differently he thought.

"Official myths have been created by both sides (India and Pakistan). Many Pakistanis, for example, are led to believe that Kashmiris in India want the territory to become part of Pakistan," Lone was quoted by The Washington Post as saying after a crucial Ramadan ceasefire went into effect two years ago.

The Post said Lone also challenged the wisdom of allowing militant groups in Pakistan that control several militant factions to set a religious agenda for the conflict.

Lone told The Post that an "eye-opening" aspect of his visit to Pakistan was his interaction with Kashmiris on that side of the Line of Control.

He said he found many Kashmiris in Pakistan to be less happy with the Pakistani government than he had anticipated.

He said he hoped his visit had helped to counter the "mutual suspicions and misconceptions" that Indians, Pakistanis and Kashmiris in both countries have about one another.

"India should now see that Kashmiri leaders are not sold to any particular idea. In Pakistan they can see that we just don't criticise India, we have the courage to give a balanced version. Even if it hurts Pakistani sentiments, I think it has helped on both sides."

While no-one knows exactly who is responsible for Lone's assassination, Kashmiris, long used to conspiracy theories say its clear the militants who attended the rally, enraged that their pro-Pakistani slogans were being shouted down by pro-independence supporters, were responsible for silencing the Hurriyat leader.

Certainly, it's a message that the Mirwaiz cannot take lightly. The hardliners have made it clear they will not tolerate any softening of their stance on Kashmir – militancy is the only lever that will bring India to the negotiating table.

Conversely, it could consolidate pro-peace forces behind the Mirwaiz, just as the killing of Sant Longowol did in the Punjab.

There are also those who say that other vested interests in Kashmir, who want status quo to be maintained, and worried that state elections in October will sweep them from power, may also have had a hand in his death.

Lone's words – "There are also important vested interests in both the Indian and Pakistani establishments who want the (Kashmir) conflict to continue" – may prove prophetic.