Almaty is now the final frontier

It's already being dubbed Putin's Polka for the manner in which Russian President Vladimir Putin has choreographed the agenda at the Conference for Interaction and Confidence-building measures in Asia (CICA), that begins in the Kazakh capital Almaty today. He has squarely placed the crisis in the Subcontinent at the centre of the 16-nation Asian summit, while his own role as peacemaker, which has so far remained in the shadows, comes into its own.

Putin, who signed on as a member of the high table at Nato last week, is leading the international community's peace moves from the front. He has not only won the confidence of U.S. President George W. Bush, he has also been able to influence Washington and the international community on its South Asia policy, and pre-empt the 'war on terror' being derailed by the Indo-Pak crisis.

This has become markedly evident in recent weeks by the chorus from world leaders calling for restraint by India and Pakistan, whose vastly opposing agendas on the disputed region of Kashmir may finally need a radical readjustment.

Camps of upheaval

Washington's fears are two-fold. One, that the Taliban and Al Qaida, and their ancillary 'jihadi' groups have regrouped along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, and may have even found refuge in the 70-odd camps along the India-Pakistan border, that are seen as staging posts for the attacks in Indian Kashmir.

These are camps of recent vintage and U.S. Undersecretary of State Christina Rocca, visiting the region recently, was unequivocal in conveying Bush's message that they must be shut down.

Washington believes that 'jihadi' elements at the behest of the Al Qaida, thwarted in their plans to build a suitcase bomb through scientists working for the Al Rashid Trust, were determined to stoke Indo-Pak tensions, and in the ensuing confusion of regional upheaval and perhaps, even a full scale war, gain control of Pakistan's nuclear assets. The nuclear bogey, that India accuses Pakistan of raising, may have well come to haunt both sides, although not in the scenario that either side envisaged.

Putin set the peace initiative rolling with his call to Pakistani and Indian leaders to lower the tension, but more importantly, in detailed telephone-diplomacy, between his foreign minister Ivanov and U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, laid out, that the parameters of the South Asian crisis will be defined by the goals of the international 'war on terror' rather than the regional and therefore, more limited interpretations of the dispute offered by either side.

Powell's interview to the Public Broadcasting System has crystallised the shift from urgings in private to public exhortations to Pakistan President to halt the incursion of 'freedom fighters' across the Line of Control. Critically for India, the U.S. has moved away from any uncomfortable linkages, as it sets aside the issue of Kashmir's freedom struggle from the immediate problem of insurgency.

The Russian argument

The Russians clinched their argument with the U.S. by pointing to the dividends that have accrued from their clampdown on the militant elements in Chechnya, as an example of what could be achieved in Kashmir once peace reigns in the valley. In a sense, Russia's emerging role is not just a bid to reclaim its sway over its former satellite states and allies, but entry into an arena that it is far more conversant with, than new entrant, the U.S., which with its vast stakes in the region, has more to lose if it cannot shut off the terror tap in a more lasting manner.

The U.S. is hamstrung by the degree to which it has engaged in Afghanistan, where its commitment to ensure a smooth transition of power to a grand assembly or Loya Jirga predicates on how far its key ally Pakistan will follow the U.S. diktat. Pakistan has forsworn the Afghan jihad, but whether it will realign its strategy in Kashmir, depends a great deal on how the U.S. deals with Pakistan's concerns on territory it feels it has a legitimate claim over.

Musharraf has made it more than amply clear that Pakistan's diplomatic and moral support for Kashmiri Muslims resisting Indian rule remains in place. He has despatched two key envoys to brief key leaders worldwide on Pakistan's unchanging position. In an interview to Gulf News, days before the failed Agra Summit last year, Musharraf had said he believed "the Line of Control is the problem and not the solution". That, despite the international pressure to stop infiltration across the border, has not changed.

Finger pointing

Says Musharraf's key adviser Gen. Rashid Qureshi "India must realise that the very same militants that threaten and attack them are also the same elements that are out to destabilise the Musharraf government. We have to find ways and means for India and Pakistan to stop pointing fingers at each other and attack the menace together. We face the same threats."

But Qureshi, echoing Musharraf, insisted that Kashmir was an indigenous freedom struggle and the terrorist attackers inside Indian Kashmir were indigenous freedom fighters. The two track positions here, are elements that offer a glimmer of hope that the international leaders at the Almaty summit may be able to work with.

In recent weeks, the U.S. has veered to a view, that echoes former President Bill Clinton who, during and after Kargil, stressed the inviolability of the LOC and his commitment to the notion of a nation's sovereignty. However, if assurances are given to Pakistan that some, if not all of its concerns on Kashmir will be addressed, there is a chance that Pakistan will, hold good on its word to stop the infiltration. In turn, India may stand down its troops from the current state of 'red alert.'

Indian leaders may also have to soften their stand on talks. So far, they have remained adamant there will be none until there is an end to cross-border terrorism. This has been taken a step further with senior members of government threatening war if another incident on the scale of Kaluchak, the attack by militants on an army housing camp, occurs.

The Washington Post encapsulated the challenges before Bush by stating Washington's "daunting agenda" which "includes ending Pakistan's covert support for Kashmir's insurgents, curtailing the broader terrorism laced proxy war that rages between the two countries, stabilising Kashmir's de facto borders, and yes, even discussing Kashmir's future."

The challenge before the U.S. therefore, wooed assiduously by both sides to see things their way, is now, not just warding off war, possibly a nuclear war, but to deal more deeply with the sub-continent. At Almaty, the US may be using two proxies to cajole the two parties to back down before tackling the larger issue that lies ahead.

Motivation of powers

Suspicions of the motivations of the major powers run deep in both countries. Russia has been a long time ally of India, and reports that Moscow has cut the red tape and released spare parts and munitions for India's war effort will do nothing to boost Pakistan's confidence that it is an unbiased player in the game. What Putin has going for him is the carrot of the Central Asian gas pipeline, and the huge cash dividend that would follow the building of a pipeline that