Allies seek more time for inspectors

Over the past week, key U.S. allies have sent an unambiguous message to the Bush administration to give United Nations weapons inspectors in Iraq time to complete their work, even if it means delaying the onset of hostilities.

The allied opposition to an early war with Iraq has strengthened the hand of moderates in the administration who have been arguing against setting a firm deadline for Iraqi President Saddam Hussain to comply with demands for giving up his weapons of mass destruction, according to U.S. officials and allied diplomats. According to these sources, the odds of a February war appear to be receding, barring a major Iraqi misstep that would galvanise Western governments and public opinion.

"The odds have gone down for war,'' said a well-placed U.S. official. "We don't have a good war plan; the inspectors have unprecedented access to Iraq; we have just started giving them intelligence; we have to give them more time to see how this works. There is no reason to stop the process until it can't proceed any further.''

The apparent relaxation in administration rhetoric contrasts with statements by President Bush late last year advocating a "zero tolerance'' policy toward Saddam. After weeks of insisting that U.S. forces were poised to intervene in Iraq if Saddam failed to properly account for his weapons of mass destruction, administration spokesmen are now echoing their European counterparts, and saying the inspectors should be given time to do their work.

Before this week, it appeared that the administration was intent on orchestrating a final confrontation with Baghdad soon after January 27, when chief UN weapons inspector Hans Blix is due to report back to the Security Council on Iraqi compliance with international demands for the nation's disarmament. This coincided with a major U.S. military buildup in the Gulf region - putting maximum pressure on Saddam and providing Bush with a credible military option to back up his threats of regime change.

All of a sudden, this timetable seems in doubt. Not only are key allies such as Britain and France publicly calling for the United Nations to come up with clear-cut evidence of Iraqi wrongdoing, the military preparations for an attack on Iraq have encountered a hitch because of delays by Turkey in agreeing to the two-front North-South war plan developed by the Pentagon.

Although many administration officials believe that Turkey will eventually go along with urgent U.S. requests to station as many as 80,000 troops in the country in preparation for an attack on northern Iraq, it could take weeks to conclude the negotiations and move the troops into position. The lack of a definite response from Ankara has confronted the Bush administration with the difficult choice of delaying the war or abandoning plans for a northern front, which could mean higher U.S. casualties.

On the diplomatic front, some of the strongest words of caution have come from Britain, which until now has played the role of Washington's staunchest ally in the gathering showdown with Baghdad. British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who is coming under increasing pressure from his own Labour Party to distance himself from Bush, told the British cabinet on Thursday that the weapons inspectors should be given time and space to finish their work.

Blair said that the January 27 date for Blix's report to the Security Council was an important staging post, but shouldn't be regarded in any sense as a deadline, according to British officials.

Both Britain and France want the United States to return to the Security Council for another resolution to endorse the use of military force against Saddam and to formally declare Iraq to be in material breach of its disarmament obligations. In order to get such a resolution through the Security Council, allied diplomats say it will probably be necessary for Blix to submit an unambiguous report accusing Baghdad of continuing its weapons of mass destruction programmes.

In an interim report to the Security Council on Thursday, Blix criticised Iraq for failing to provide full information on its weapons programmes, but said inspectors needed more time to compile an accurate picture. He added that his inspectors had so far failed to find a smoking gun demonstrating Iraqi noncompliance.

French President Jacques Chirac underlined his insistence on the need for explicit UN endorsement of the use of force against Iraq at a meeting with foreign ambassadors earlier this week. He told the diplomats that any decision on military action could only be taken by the Security Council on a basis of a report from the inspectors. As a permanent member of the council - along with the United States, Britain, China and Russia - France is in a position to veto Security Council decisions.

Both U.S. officials and allied diplomats said the public signals from London and Paris urging Washington to give the inspectors more time have been reinforced in private conversations at all levels. In an interview this week, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said he was well aware of the domestic pressures on Blair, who has been accused by left-wing British newspaper commentators of being Bush's poodle.

@ Los Angeles Times-Washington Post News Service