Akali-BJP alliance set for total rout

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has decided to stand by its trusted ally, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), asserting that their alliance is necessary for Hindu-Sikh unity in the country even as exit poll results have predicted a complete rout for the ruling Akali Dal-BJP coalition in northern Punjab state.

Exit polls conducted after the one-day voting to elect the new 117-member state assembly concluded yesterday have predicted that the Congress party is headed for a landslide victory in Punjab. Polls were held for 116 seats yesterday, while polling in one constituency was countermanded following death of an Akali Dal candidate.

Counting is scheduled to take place on February 24 along with those of Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal and Manipur.

Alarmed by the exit poll results, the BJP was quick to say that the impact of Punjab polls will not be reflected in BJP-ruled states of Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal. Nearly 5.2 million voters of Uttaranchal are slated to vote today to elect the 70-member assembly, while voting for 92 seats will be held in UP in the first of the three-phased polling in UP to elect the 403-member assembly.

"That the Congress party was heading for a victory in Punjab was very obvious. Exit poll results are as per our expectations," senior BJP leader Jagdish Prasad Mathur told Gulf News yesterday.

Anticipating unfavourable verdict in Punjab, the BJP of late had been saying that the anti-incumbency factor, which is supposed to have played a big role in Punjab, is not at play in UP and Uttaranchal.

"Issues and situations are drastically different in these two states. We are convinced that UP and Uttaranchal will be totally unaffected by results in Punjab," Mathur said.

The exit polls conducted on behalf of three leading television channels on an average have predicted 81 seats for the Congress party and 25 seats for the Akali-Dal-BJP combine.

The state-run Doordarshan-C-Fore has predicted the lowest 72 seats for the Congress party and 30 for the Akali Dal-BJP combine; the Aajtak-C-voter has given the maximum 91 seats to the Congress and 17 to the Akali Dal-BJP alliance.

Zee News-CMS, on the other hand, has projected the Congress party as winning 80 seats and the Akali Dal-BJP alliance 28 seats.

If the exit poll projections come true, it will be a complete reversal for the Akali Dal-BJP combine which in 1992 state polls had won 93 seats, as against 14 by the Congress party.

The low turnout (between 55 to 57 per cent), particularly the lack of interest displayed by the urban voters who compared to rural voters turned out in smaller numbers to exercise their right to franchise, seems to have hurt the ruling combine.

The Congress party, it is pointed out, has always thrived on low turnout of voters as in 1992 when the voting percentage was only 24.3, the Congress party had managed to win 87 seats.

Moreover, the unexpectedly poor performance by the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which is projected to win only one seat despite the fact that its national president Kanshi Ram had devoted last eight months in Punjab, has also hurt the Akali Dal-BJP combine, as the BSP's lower caste voters under tactical voting appear to have opted to vote for the Congress party.

Expressing her pleasure at the exit poll results, Ambika Soni, the national general secretary of the Congress party, termed it as per her party's expectations.

"Our feedback was also that it would be as one-sided polls as it has turned out to be," she said.

While the Akali Dal-BJP combine appear resigned to their fate, citing various reasons including lack of proper projection of achievements of the state government headed by Parkash Singh Badal, the breakaway Panthic Morcha has cast its doubts on the authenticity of the exit poll results.

Simranjit Singh Mann, chief of Shiromani Akali Dal (Mann) whose party is a partner in the Panthic Morcha, said that one should be prepared for some surprises when counting of votes is taken up on February 24.

Claiming that there was a "silent wave" in favour of the Panthic Morcha, Mann told Gulf News over phone from his hometown Fatehgarh Sahib that they are confident that the Panthic Morcha will win more seats than the Shiromani Akali Dal led by Badal.

Mann counted rampant corruption, unemployment, water dispute with neighbouring Haryana, Badal's support to the controversial Prevention of Terrorism Ordinance (POTO) and deployment of troops on borders with Pakistan as probable reasons that could have led to the projected downfall of the ruling coalition.

While Mann sounded confident that a united Akali Dal would have easily won this election, he has ruled out any possibility of it in the wake of the expected massive defeat, saying Badal has moved too close to the BJP and there is no common meeting ground left.

"We are equally opposed to both the BJP and the Congress party," he said.

BJP's national vice president Madan Lal Khurana, who unsuccessfully worked towards the Akali unity, looked dejected while admitting that split of Akali votes hurt the ruling alliance.

The projected landslide victory for the Congress party also appears to have settle the leadership dispute with Soni, who was touted as a possible compromise chief minister as some sections within the Punjab Congress were opposed to the state unit chief Capt. Amarinder Singh, announcing that the Congress party has a tradition of nominating the victorious state unit chief as its chief minister.

The Punjab outcome incidentally is also going to have a direct impact on the BSP, as Kanshi Ram's failure to prevent his lower caste vote bank from shifting to the Congress party will have a direct bearing on his own political future.

His vice president Mayawati, who has been leading the party's campaign in Uttar Pradesh, is bound to emerge as a separate power centre within the party.