Airbus predicts recovery to start by 2010

French aircraft manufacturer Airbus believes it has what it takes to tide over the tough economic conditions worldwide.

Speaking to high-level aviation officials on Sunday, Habib Fekih, president of Airbus Middle East, said that the company believes it will cycle through an economic downturn some analysts say is the worst in eight decades.
“It won't affect us as people would expect, because we have a huge backlog,'' Fekih told delegates at the MEED aviation conference in Dubai. “We have a strong backlog.''
And while the aviation giant predicts the economy will only begin its first full climb toward “complete recovery'' by 2010, until then, the aviation giant will press on believing in its own long term view that the future is bright for air travel.

Noting that it takes anywhere from six to eight years to design, manufacture and deliver an aircraft, Fekih said Airbus must adhere to its own long-term vision that pushes ahead despite economic cycles.

Since the crisis began to unfold, Airbus has delivered all of its intended aircraft, he said.
“We had no cancellations, the ship is sailing, the crew is safe.''

Fekhi said that the French government is helping secure stability in the sector by providing a five billion euro plan to help financing of Airbus aircraft.

Airbus's backlog, meanwhile, reaches around the globe, with aircraft on schedule for delivery over the next few years.

Six airlines in the United States will take seven per cent of current production, 33 airlines in Europe will take delivery of 25 per cent of production, while 18 airlines in the Middle East are scheduled to take seven per cent of Airbus production in the coming years.

Other projections by Airbus suggest that the long-term forecast for the aviation industry is sound, based upon projections that “25,000 aircraft (in total around the world) will be delivered within the next 20 years,'' he said.

Much of the projected strength of aircraft sales comes from a shift in global aviation from the United States and Europe to the Middle East, Fekih said, where airlines such as Emirates' are banking on becoming truly global one-stop carriers.

More than 62 per cent of all wide-bodied aircraft are going to the Middle East. These range from basic twin-aisle passenger jets to what are called VLAs, or very large aircraft such as the new A380, the new Airbus double-decker of which Emirates took its first delivery late last year for its Dubai-New York route.

Larger aircraft can fly far longer than traditional passenger jets of the past without stopping for refuelling.

The new wide-bodies also have more creature comforts to help passengers endure longer flights, he said, which are more economically sound with more passengers.

“This aircraft costs 20 per cent less per seat than any other aircraft today,'' Fekih said.
Working closely with Airbus, Emirates' push to move people half-way around the world without a stopover helped “define a new concept of travelling to enable passengers to fly on an aircraft for 14 hours,'' Fekih said.

The Airbus is a natural fit for the Dubai hub which has 6.2 billion people within 8,000 nautical miles, he said.



Airline revenues to slump

Airlines in the Middle East will feel the pinch of the world economic downturn in 2009 as fewer people decide to fly and corporate revenues contract the globe over, an international aviation industry expert said.

IATA's regional vice-president Majdi Sabri said

Dr Majdi Sabri, Regional Vice President for MENA for the International Air Transport Association, told delegates on Sunday morning that carriers in the region lost $100 million (Dh367 million) in 2008.

And as Middle East carriers add more planes and capacity with only a 1.2 per cent projected increase in passenger traffic, Sabri said profitability will be hurt again this year.
“As a result, airlines here will lose $200 million (Dh734 million) in 2009,'' Sabri said.

Airbus fast facts
• 5,400 aircraft delivered
• 15 manufacturing sites
• 309 operators
• 304 customers
• 56,000 employees
SOURCE: Airbus