UAE vs Iraq: AFC playoff preview, team news & prediction for FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifiers

Dubai: The United Arab Emirates and Iraq are bracing for a high-stakes battle in the AFC playoff as both sides look to keep their FIFA World Cup 2026 dreams alive. The first leg will be held at the Mohammed bin Zayed Stadium in Abu Dhabi on Thursday, with the return fixture in Basra next week.

The UAE narrowly missed automatic qualification after finishing one point short in round four of the Asian qualifiers. They needed just a draw against Qatar in their final match but suffered a 2-1 defeat in Doha, allowing Qatar to progress directly to the Fifa World Cup 2026.

Despite that setback, Cosmin Olaroiu’s men remain confident. They will look to make full use of home advantage against Iraq in the first leg. However, Iraq have held the upper hand in recent years, including a 1–0 win on March 24, 2022, in the World Cup qualifiers. The UAE have not defeated them since 2018, when they won on penalties in the Arabian Gulf Cup, following a 1–0 victory in regular time in December 2017. The two nations have not met since 2022, and much has changed for both sides since then.

Iraq experienced similar disappointment, missing out on an automatic place due to goal difference. They finished level on points with Saudi Arabia but scored fewer goals, which proved decisive. Their final group match ended goalless against the group leaders, leaving them with the playoff route as their only path to the World Cup.

The lions of Mesopotamia are now chasing their first appearance at the tournament since 1986. Since taking charge in March, coach Graham Arnold has guided Iraq through six games with only one defeat, turning them into a much more disciplined and balanced side. Under his guidance, Iraq have kept four clean sheets in their last five matches, showing a new level of defensive organisation and resilience.

Arnold’s experience on the world stage could also prove vital. He previously led Australia to the round of 16 at the last World Cup in Qatar, where they were knocked out by eventual champions Argentina. That run earned him wide praise for his tactical organisation and motivational leadership.

“Our first goal is to secure Iraq’s qualification for the World Cup, which is the most important achievement for us,” said Arnold. “Qualifying through the playoffs is a historic opportunity, and we must take it.”

UAE recent form: D W W W W L
Iraq recent form: L W W W W D

Both teams arrive in good form. Iraq are unbeaten in their last five matches, while the UAE have been strong at home, showing consistency and composure in recent fixtures.

The UAE will miss key playmaker Fabio De Lima after he picked up an injury on club duty. Though his influence was minimal in the previous playoff rounds, he remained an important attacking weapon for Olaroiu’s side, often changing the rhythm of the game with his creativity and goals. Yahya Al Ghassani and Sultan Adil are fitness concerns as well.

For Iraq, star forward Ayman Hussein is available but may start from the bench as he continues his recovery. He already has eight goals in this campaign, while Ali Jasim is expected to lead the frontline.

Olaroiu has urged his players to move past the disappointment of the Qatar defeat and channel their energy into this playoff.
“We have to forget the Qatar match. We still have an opportunity to qualify for the World Cup, and we must take advantage of it. Everyone has a part to play,” he said.

Arnold, on the other hand, voiced frustration about the previous round’s scheduling.
“When I was with Australia, we were told these playoffs would be at neutral venues. Qatar had six days of rest, home support and went through,” he said.

Both nations are desperate to return to football’s grandest stage, Iraq after nearly four decades and the UAE after 35 years.

Prediction: UAE 1–0 Iraq

The UAE’s home advantage could make the difference, giving them a slender lead before a daunting second leg in Basra, where the atmosphere will be intense. For that to happen, goalkeeper Khalid Eissa must deliver one of his best performances and cut out the mistakes that proved costly against Qatar. Iraq, meanwhile, have become defensively solid under Graham Arnold, and their compact structure will make them difficult to break down.

Olaroiu’s men will aim to secure at least a two goal cushion before travelling, as Iraq’s organisation and resilience at the back could make the return leg a fierce contest.

The winner of this tie will progress to the FIFA intercontinental playoffs in March, joining five other teams vying for the final two spots at the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico.