UAE exporters stay confident on growth even as risks evolve

Dubai: Companies across the UAE and global markets continue to expect export growth in 2026, even as the Middle East conflict reshapes financial conditions and risk dynamics across global trade.

The latest Allianz Trade Global Survey, which covered 6,000 firms across 13 markets during February and March, shows that more than seven in ten companies remain optimistic about export performance this year. That resilience reflects steady demand and the ability of businesses to adapt to changing conditions following last year’s trade disruptions.

"The Survey reveals that 75% of exporters continue to expect positive export growth in 2026. The impact of the Middle East conflict seems moderate, even more when compared to the 2025 tariff shock, when expectations dropped by -40pp,” said Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade.

Confidence remains intact, though companies are adjusting to a changing risk environment.

Trade finance conditions are becoming more nuanced, with companies seeing longer payment cycles and placing greater focus on cash flow management.

Fewer firms are receiving payments within 30 days, while longer settlement timelines are becoming more common. Many companies expect payment terms to evolve further, reflecting a more cautious approach across global trade.

Non-payment risk expectations have also increased, with sectors such as pharmaceuticals, construction and technology seeing greater exposure. Larger firms are navigating longer payment cycles, linked to the complexity of global supply chains.

“Still, this optimism remains fragile and could quickly fade if the conflict drags on,” Coqui said.

The UAE continues to stand out as one of the most confident trade hubs globally, supported by strong infrastructure and diversified trade links.

While risk perceptions have risen, the broader outlook remains anchored in the country’s role as a key gateway for regional and international trade.

Businesses are taking a balanced approach. Some are moving ahead with diversification and reshoring plans, while others are pacing investments in line with evolving conditions.

This reflects a market making measured decisions, where companies are aligning strategy with both opportunity and risk.

Companies are strengthening operational resilience through inventory management and expansion into new markets, both of which have emerged as widely adopted strategies.

Sourcing from new suppliers and rerouting shipments are also gaining momentum, helping businesses maintain continuity and flexibility.

“Since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, 50% of firms are seeking alternative shipping routes or carriers,” said Ano Kuhanathan, Head of Corporate Research at Allianz Trade.

Operational adjustments are taking priority, with companies focusing on logistics, delivery timelines and customs processes to keep trade flows moving.

Exporters are also broadening their focus when it comes to future growth markets.

Europe and Asia are gaining traction, supported by stable demand and new trade agreements that are opening up fresh opportunities.

“Growth opportunities are being reinforced by a wave of new trade agreements,” said Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade.

India, Brazil, Vietnam and France are emerging as key markets, even as companies continue to navigate regulatory requirements that influence the pace of expansion.

The survey reflects a global trade environment in which demand remains strong, with companies adapting their strategies to manage evolving risks.

Exporters are planning for growth while strengthening financial discipline and supply chain resilience.

The outlook for UAE businesses remains supported by strong fundamentals, with adaptability and strategic planning shaping how companies move forward in the months ahead.