Iran war: Will your internet slow soon? Hormuz tensions raise undersea cable risks

Dubai: Internet users in the United Arab Emirates are unlikely to face major disruptions despite rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, though speeds could slow if conflict damages subsea cables that carry global data traffic.

The waterway, at the centre of the Iran conflict, is a key route not only for oil shipments but also for fibre-optic cables linking Asia, Europe and the Middle East. Subsea cables carry more than 95% of international data traffic, making them critical to global connectivity.

Industry analysts say the global internet is unlikely to be disrupted, but regional connectivity could be affected if multiple cables are damaged or if repair operations are delayed.

The UAE benefits from a network design that reduces direct exposure to the Strait. Several submarine cables land in Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, outside the Hormuz chokepoint, allowing some traffic to bypass the most sensitive area.

The country also maintains terrestrial fibre links with neighbouring markets, enabling rerouting of data if subsea systems are disrupted. This diversification lowers the risk of a full outage, though it may not prevent slower speeds during periods of strain.

The region’s infrastructure remains concentrated, increasing vulnerability to disruption. “Virtually all the region’s data traffic flows through a limited number of routes,” a researcher cited in industry analysis said, highlighting reliance on a small number of corridors.

Subsea cables in the Gulf form part of a wider global network, but their geographic clustering raises the risk of simultaneous outages from a single incident.

Security conditions are already affecting access to infrastructure. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply since the conflict began on February 28, according to maritime data.

The channel typically handles about 120 vessel transits a day, according to Lloyd’s List. Between March 1 and March 18, only 105 commodity-carrying vessels passed through the strait, data from analytics firm Kpler showed, a drop of more than 95%.

Of those crossings, around 60 were oil and gas tankers, with nearly 60% carrying cargo. About three-quarters of vessels were outbound from the Gulf.

The decline in traffic reflects heightened security risks and limits access for specialised repair ships needed to service subsea cables, raising the likelihood of prolonged disruptions if damage occurs.

The risks extend beyond cables themselves. “Asymmetric warfare… target critical infrastructure,” flagged security analysts told The Guardian, pointing to growing threats to digital assets such as data centres and communications networks.

Subsea cables are vulnerable not only to direct attacks but also to indirect damage from anchors, shipping incidents or nearby strikes in congested waterways.

Repairing damaged cables is complex and can take weeks or months. Operations require specialised vessels, regulatory approvals and secure conditions, all of which are harder to guarantee during conflict.

If multiple cables are affected, rerouting traffic may only partially offset disruptions, leading to slower speeds and reduced service quality.

Despite these risks, a complete internet outage remains unlikely. Global data flows rely on a distributed network, with major Europe-Asia routes running outside the Gulf.

However, countries reliant on Gulf connectivity could face temporary slowdowns, particularly during peak demand or prolonged outages.

The situation is accelerating efforts to diversify infrastructure. Gulf states, including the UAE, are investing in alternative routes such as overland fibre corridors to reduce dependence on maritime chokepoints.

For now, the UAE’s network diversification and strategic positioning provide a degree of resilience, with the main risk to users being slower speeds rather than widespread outages if tensions escalate further.