Study points to limits of Strait of Hormuz as central strategic lever for Iran
Control of vital oil waterway emerges as Iran’s substitute for depleted 'hard power'
Tehran's "control" over the Strait of Hormuz could generate "significant" economic value for the regime and strengthen the country's "international position", Iran's military spokesman claimed on Wednesday.
Following losses to its missile, drone, and proxy networks in the 2026 US-Israel conflict, Iran's military strategy is increasingly centering on the Strait of Hormuz for defence and global leverage.
Analysts note a consensus among Tehran’s planners elevating the strait — a chokepoint for 20% of global crude oil and LNG per the International Energy Agency — as a prime "asymmetric" tool after years of attrition.
Expert assessments
Analysts highlighted the strait’s role in imposing adversary costs and market shocks.
According to the Institute of the Study of War (ISW) and its partner, Critical Threats Project (CTP), the Iran regime's strategy prior to October 7, 2023, and the subsequent regional escalations — including the intense Spring 2026 conflict with the US and Israel — relied heavily on ballistic missiles, drones, and a network of "proxy" forces, including those in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Palestine.
Those pillars have been significantly "degraded", elevating the strategic importance of the narrow chokepoint.
Key developments
On May 13, an Artesh (regular Iranian army) spokesperson declared that Iran would no longer permit US “weapons” — interpreted to include US warships heading to bases such as the US 5th Fleet headquarters in Manama, Bahrain — to transit the strait.
The spokesperson emphasized that achieving “strategic control” would generate new revenues for Iran and bolster its overall power.
Iran has already demonstrated disruptive tactics, including blocking select vessels, imposing tolls or compliance requirements, and using the strait as leverage.
Such actions pose serious risks to global energy markets and US interests in freedom of navigation.
Recent agreements, such as a reported deal between Iraq, Pakistan, and Iran for oil and gas shipments through the strait (prior to May 10), appear to legitimize Iranian claims of sovereignty.
The 2026 Iran War
The current tensions stem from the direct US-Israeli military campaign against Iran that began on February 28, 2026 ("Operation Epic Fury").
Strikes targeted Iranian military sites, nuclear-related facilities, and leadership, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Iran responded with missile and drone barrages, while severely restricting or blocking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
A ceasefire was eventually reached in early April 2026, but disputes persist over Iran’s nuclear program (particularly its highly enriched uranium stockpile), sanctions relief, and control of the strait.
ISW notes that Iranian leaders view control of the strait as a replacement deterrent and source of leverage against the US, especially as the regime seeks to rebuild capabilities and negotiate from a position of perceived strength.
'Sovereignty over Hormuz'
Recognition of Iranian “sovereignty” over the international waterway would represent a major shift in global maritime norms, according to the Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA).
"Iran’s ongoing strategy of leveraging the Strait of Hormuz as a geopolitical pressure point is widely perceived as a source of strategic advantage. However, this assessment overlooks a fundamental reality: Iran is structurally more vulnerable to sustained disruption of the strait than are its regional adversaries," BESA pointed out.
The BESA Centre Perspectives (May 7, 2026) states: "With the overwhelming majority of its oil exports and trade dependent on this corridor, any prolonged closure would inflict severe economic damage on Iran itself, exacerbating internal instability and limiting its strategic endurance."
More to it, Iran’s strategy of extorting geopolitical advantage through the strait is "inherently self-defeating, as it is itself deeply vulnerable to the consequences of the strait’s prolonged closure."
At the same time, Iran’s escalation through the targeting of Gulf infrastructure and energy assets, has failed to produce the intended political effect of coercing Gulf Arab states into distancing themselves from the US.
Instead, it has accelerated regional awareness of the risks associated with overdependence on a single maritime chokepoint.
"Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have already invested in alternative export routes and infrastructure that partially mitigate this vulnerability, with further expansion both feasible and strategically necessary," BESA pointed out.
Strategic importance (and limits) of the Strait of Hormuz for Iran
Critical to global energy: About 20–21 million barrels/day of oil and liquids pass through Hormuz — roughly 20–25% of global consumption and ~one-third of seaborne oil trade, as per the International Energy Agency.
Shock value, not lasting leverage: Any disruption would jolt markets immediately, but it would not give Iran a sustainable "asymmetric" advantage.
Iran is highly dependent on the same route: The vast majority of Iran’s own oil exports move through Hormuz.
Bypass capacity is minimal: Facilities meant to avoid the strait, such as Jask Oil Terminal (in southern Iran, near Kooh Mobarak in Hormozgan Province, along the Gulf of Oman, about 150km east of the strait), handle well under 300,000 bpd under constraints — a small fraction of needs.
Export reliance is overwhelming: At its peak, Iran exported an estimated 1.3–1.6 million bpd, with over 90% shipped via Hormuz.
Self-inflicted damage risk: Closing the strait would effectively choke Iran’s own revenue stream, amounting to economic self-disruption.
Iran is less shock-resilient than global markets: While other countries can tap diversified suppliers and strategic reserves, Iran faces sanctions, tight foreign exchange, and structural inefficiencies.
Likely domestic fallout: Prolonged disruption would worsen inflation, fiscal stress, and internal political pressure inside Iran faster than it would coerce the broader global market, which is fast embracing the new reality and building their own energy resilience.
Regional dynamics
While deals with neighbours like Iraq and Pakistan could deepen economic ties with Iran, freedom of navigation remains a core concern for the world.
The implications of Iran's leveraging of the strait for global energy security cannot be discounted: prolonged disruptions or selective enforcement could affect oil prices and strain global supply chains.
The situation remains fluid. Both sides continue to manoeuvre amid fragile ceasefire arrangements. Developments in the Gulf continue to have far-reaching geopolitical and economic consequences.
