Oil holds near $92: 'Ghost' tankers ease nerves amid rising US-Iran military clashes
US crude stock draw and supply concerns push benchmarks toward $90
Global oil prices remained elevated but relatively stable on Wednesday after fresh US military strikes on Iran heightened tensions in the Middle East, suggesting traders remain cautious but are not yet pricing in a worst-case disruption to global energy supplies.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded at $92.05 per barrel, up 0.66%, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.63% to $88.76 per barrel, according to market data as of early Wednesday afternoon in Tokyo.
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The modest gains came after the US launched retaliatory strikes against Iran following the reported downing of a US Army AH-64 Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil transit routes.
Crude prices remain below earlier highs
Despite the military escalation, oil prices remained well below the highs reached earlier in the conflict, indicating investors believe crude exports are continuing to reach global markets through alternative routes and clandestine shipments.
The Strait of Hormuz normally handles roughly one-fifth of globally traded oil. Analysts have warned that a complete shutdown of the waterway could send oil prices sharply higher and reignite inflation worldwide.
'Ghost' crude carriers
Recent research from JPMorgan suggests visible commercial traffic through the strait remains far below pre-war levels, yet significant volumes of oil continue moving through "ghost" ships, unofficial channels and alternative export routes, helping prevent a severe supply shock.
Energy markets appeared to reflect that assessment Wednesday.
Gasoline futures climbed 0.51% and heating oil gained 0.24%, while US natural gas slipped 0.73%.
Among regional crude benchmarks, Murban crude, a key Middle Eastern grade exported from the United Arab Emirates, fell nearly 4% to $88.24 per barrel, while Mars crude, a major US Gulf Coast benchmark, dropped more than 3% to $110.04.
The divergence suggests traders remain focused on regional supply dynamics rather than anticipating an immediate collapse of Gulf exports.
Why markets aren't panicking
The relatively restrained market reaction comes despite what many analysts describe as one of the most significant oil supply disruptions in decades.
Three factors have helped cushion markets:
Alternative export routes, particularly Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea.
Clandestine or "ghost" tanker shipments reportedly moving through Hormuz despite the conflict.
Reduced Chinese crude imports, as Beijing draws from stockpiles rather than aggressively purchasing on international markets.
JPMorgan analysts recently argued that these adjustments have allowed the global energy system to absorb a shock that would normally trigger far larger price spikes.
What traders are watching next
Investors are closely monitoring several risks that could push prices higher:
Further US-Iran military escalation
Any attempt by Iran to fully close the Strait of Hormuz
Additional attacks on oil infrastructure, tankers or Gulf shipping lanes.
Rapid declines in global crude inventories.
For now, crude prices near $90 to $92 suggest markets are pricing in continued disruption but not a complete collapse of Middle Eastern oil exports.
The next several days could prove critical as traders assess whether the latest US strikes represent a limited retaliation or the beginning of a broader confrontation that threatens one of the world's most important energy corridors.
