UAE-Kerala airfares set to surge as Air India Express rejigs schedule

Dubai: The UAE will not see major disruptions to Air India Express connectivity with Kerala despite the airline's winter schedule adjustments, Gulf News can reveal, even as ticket prices to the southern Indian state have soared to between Dh1,200 and Dh1,400 following media reports of the cuts.

An airline source told Gulf News that the schedule adjustments are temporary, seasonal changes driven purely by market demand patterns, and that normal service levels will resume when the summer schedule begins in March.

"These are temporary shifts in our network based on seasonal travel patterns," the source explained. "Winter months see significantly higher demand towards northern Indian sectors from the Gulf, whilst summer months see increased traffic to Kerala due to school holidays and festivals like Onam."

So why are Malayalee expatriates pushing back against this move? Kerala community groups are petitioning leaders in India, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to oversee the matter and maintain the existing flight frequencies to Kerala.

All this when the winter schedule for Air India Express is yet to be officially released. Usually, airlines submit their proposed flight plans, including routes and frequencies, to India's Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) for the upcoming summer and winter schedules. The DGCA then reviews these proposals and approves the total number of weekly flights and the list of airports to be served.

Sources say the schedule is expected to be released mid-October. Still, speculation is already rife, even drawing the ire of Indian politician Shashi Tharoor who said "Air India must stop treating Kerala as an afterthought."

In the midst of all this, travel agents are insisting that this year's winter break will be a bumper period for travel to Kerala.

"If you take into account the National Day holidays, schools close on Friday, 28 November. The official winter break begins on Monday, 8 December. Many families, especially those with smaller children, may forego the few days in the middle. We expect huge demand to Kerala this year," said Safeer Mahmood, general manager at Smart Travels.

The airline source emphasised that UAE-Kerala connectivity would not see major disruptions, contrary to concerns raised by expatriate community organisations.

"The UAE market won't be impacted in a big way," the source stated. However, the source acknowledged that other GCC markets, including Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, would see some temporary reductions in frequencies.

Indian media reports suggest that routes from Kozhikode and Kannur airports are expected to see the most substantial cuts, with some services being cancelled entirely during the winter months.

The airline source explained that Air India Express adjusts its network twice yearly—during winter and summer schedules—based on passenger demand data and market conditions.

"Winter travel patterns show a clear preference for northern Indian destinations like Jaipur and Varanasi, which see increased demand due to winter festivities and pleasant weather," the source said.

Moreover, the route reshuffle is not unique to Air India Express—all airlines, including IndiGo and Akasa, are expected to make similar seasonal adjustments.

Despite the airline's assurances, ticket prices to Kerala have already risen sharply since news of the schedule changes emerged.

Return fares to southern Indian destinations, including Kerala, currently range from Dh1,200 to Dh1,400 for December travel—prices that typically increase further as Christmas and New Year holidays approach. Shoulder season rates to these destinations average Dh800 to Dh1,000.

Travel agents in the UAE expressed concern that the reduced capacity would exacerbate the pricing situation during peak travel season.

"Demand is very high to the South during the winter break," said a travel agent who requested anonymity. "Off-peak fares average Dh800 to Dh900 to Kerala routes, but schools are closed and December holidays are particularly long this year, starting from 28 November."

Mahmood also highlighted the disconnect between the airline's strategy and market realities in the UAE.

"Winter demand for the Kerala sector is huge, especially for the Christmas vacation period," Safeer said. "We've already seen a 40 per cent hike in prices. Several flights will be cut, and airports have been notified—that's why prices have increased."

Despite the airline's capacity reductions, travel agents report that demand for Kerala routes remains exceptionally strong.

"Throughout the month, we have hard blocks on Air India Express flights," Mahmood said. "The diaspora population from Kerala is so high, and it has remained stable with year-on-year growth. We are expecting a surge in demand due to the long holidays."

Agents warn that with reduced capacity meeting sustained high demand, travellers should expect elevated fares to persist throughout the winter season.

"Kerala is a high-yield destination," said Mahmood. "If you reduce supply when demand is increasing, prices will inevitably rise. That's basic economics."

The issue has sparked broader questions about the adequacy of affordable connectivity options for Kerala's large expatriate workforce in the Gulf.