UAE summer travel demand holds firm; high airfares delay bookings

Dubai: UAE residents are still eager to travel this summer, but soaring airfares and reduced flight availability due to the global jet fuel crunch are forcing many families to adopt a wait and watch approach to bookings, according to several travel agents.

Travel companies say the biggest issue right now is not lack of demand, but lack of seat supply — especially on heavily travelled routes such as India, where reduced airline frequencies have sharply pushed up ticket prices.

“Demand is there — supply is the issue,” said Raheesh Babu, Chief Operating Officer of Musafir.com. “Airfares are very high because flights are limited. For example, Indian carriers like IndiGo were operating around 40 flights a day on certain sectors, and now that is down to fewer than 10. That shortage is directly leading to higher fares.”

For UAE residents, especially families planning annual holidays or trips home during school breaks, this translates into delayed decisions. Many are monitoring prices daily, hoping fares will ease once more flights resume.

“People are willing to travel — that has never changed,” Babu said. “The only reason they are waiting is that prices are high. Airlines are saying fuel and insurance costs have gone up sharply, so passengers are choosing a wait-and-watch approach.”

The aviation disruption comes as global airlines continue to struggle with soaring jet fuel prices following instability in the Middle East's supply chain.

Airlines worldwide have been forced to cut frequencies, reduce capacity, and raise fares as fuel becomes one of the biggest cost burdens. Industry estimates show jet fuel can account for as much as 40 per cent of airline operating expenses during crisis periods.

TP Sudeesh, general manager of Deira Travels, said UAE carriers are currently operating at approximately 60 to 70 per cent capacity.

"There is still no additional supply,” Sudeesh said. “Airlines are only releasing schedules for the next five to seven days in some cases. Earlier, passengers had four or five flights a day to choose from on many regional routes — now they may only find one or two.”

The issues have made travel particularly difficult for middle-income families, many of whom postponed trips during Eid Al Fitr and are now considering Eid Al Adha or late summer instead.

“Families are waiting not only for lower fares, but also for geopolitical stability,” Sudeesh added. “If the political situation improves and there is a lasting peace agreement, bookings will recover very quickly.”

Rashid Abbas, Managing Director of Arooha Travels, said UAE travellers are cautiously optimistic after recent signs of regional calm, but confidence has not fully returned.

“Over the last two to three days, there have been no major incidents, and that is creating some positive sentiment,” Abbas said. “People are hoping things stabilise within a week. Once that happens, booking momentum could return quickly.”

Travel agents say summer demand is beginning to trickle in, rather than arrive in the strong wave usually seen by this time of year. Annual leave plans are being made, and enquiries are rising steadily — but many bookings remain unconfirmed.

“Summer bookings are coming slowly,” Babu said. “Holiday enquiries and annual vacation requests have started. People are asking, comparing prices, checking options — but many are not pressing confirm yet.”

One segment seeing strong growth despite airfare concerns is outbound visa demand, especially for Europe.

“European Schengen visa enquiries have gone up considerably,” Babu said. “In fact, we have had to move two to three staff members into visa processing from other departments just to handle the increase.”

However, higher-income UAE residents continue to book summer holidays, especially to Europe and parts of Asia, while middle-income households are holding back until airfares become more manageable.

“We are still seeing good movement to Japan, Sri Lanka and Schengen destinations,” Abbas said. “Those who can afford the current fares are travelling. The hesitation is mainly among price-sensitive travellers.”

Demand to CIS destinations, however, has fallen sharply, making that one of the weakest-performing outbound markets this season.

Despite the short-term disruption, aviation’s long-term outlook remains robust. The International Air Transport Association forecasts that global passenger demand will more than double by 2050, driven by rising middle-class travel and expanding connectivity in emerging markets.

“The outlook for air travel is positive. People want to travel,” said Willie Walsh, IATA Director-General. “Under all our modelled scenarios, demand to fly is expected to more than double by mid-century.”

For now, though, UAE travel demand remains constrained by a strong consumer appetite and limited airline capacity.

“If there is a permanent ceasefire within the next week or two, supply can recover quickly,” Babu said. “The UAE market has the capability to restore volumes fast. Demand is already there — people want to travel.”

Still, airlines are warning that relief may not come quickly. Carriers including Air India, Delta, Air New Zealand and Cathay Pacific have already raised fuel surcharges or cut flights due to the jet fuel squeeze. Analysts say fare increases and cancellations may continue into peak summer unless fuel supply disruptions ease.

For UAE residents, that means travel could remain expensive for months.