Ryanair chief predicts when US-Iran war would end as airlines brace for fuel price shock

Dubai: Europe’s biggest airline believes the US-Israel-Iran conflict may ease within weeks, with Ryanair Group CEO Michael O’Leary suggesting political pressure in Washington could force a resolution before the US midterm election campaign intensifies.

Speaking during an analyst call after Ryanair reported record annual profits, O’Leary said he had been told by senior US political figures that the situation in the Middle East would likely need to stabilise by the end of May, reported travel publication Skfit.

“I have been reliably advised by a number of senior US politicians that Memorial Day is when those midterm campaigns kick off, and that there will need to be a resolution of the situation by the end of May,” O’Leary said during the call.

He argued that rising fuel prices and prolonged instability would become politically damaging for US President Donald Trump and Republicans heading into election season.

“I think Trump will find some resolution or declare a victory by the end of May when the midterm electioneering kicks off,” O’Leary said.

“I don’t think the uncertainty in the Middle East can continue into June, July, August, or Trump will lose not just the House but the Senate as well.”

The comments came as airlines continue to monitor volatility linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes. Airlines globally have been watching fuel prices closely amid fears of supply disruptions following the conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran.

Despite the uncertainty, O’Leary said Ryanair was now far less concerned about Europe physically running short of jet fuel.

“We now have almost zero concerns over fuel supplies across Europe,” he told analysts, citing discussions with the airline’s fuel teams and meetings at the recent IATA Aviation Energy Forum in Paris.

According to Ryanair, Europe is now sourcing fuel supplies from West Africa, Norway, the Americas and parts of the Middle East, reducing dependence on Gulf shipping routes. O’Leary added that even suppliers traditionally dependent on Gulf imports were rerouting shipments where necessary.

However, he warned the bigger problem had shifted from fuel availability to fuel prices.

Spot jet fuel prices have risen sharply in recent weeks, and Ryanair said elevated costs could remain for “some months” even if the conflict cools.

The airline said it has hedged most of its fuel needs at favourable rates, placing it in a stronger position than many rivals. Ryanair has hedged 80 per cent of its summer fuel at $668 per metric ton.

O’Leary said many competing European airlines do not have the same level of fuel protection and could face serious financial strain if oil prices remain high through the winter season.

“There will be significant airline failures in Europe this winter, mainly from some competitive airlines who offer low fares but don’t have low costs and are not as well hedged as Ryanair,” he said.

Ryanair believes some travellers who had originally planned long-haul or Gulf-region holidays may instead choose shorter European trips this summer. Destinations such as Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece are expected to remain popular, while Turkey, Albania and Morocco are also seeing growing interest.

“Families will go on holidays. The question is, will they go on holidays long-haul or to the Middle East? Or will they stay at home and go on holidays in Europe?” O’Leary said.

Separately, O’Leary also struck a more positive tone on Boeing after years of criticism over aircraft delivery delays.

He said Ryanair’s most recent Boeing 737 Max deliveries had arrived “defect-free” and earlier than revised schedules, crediting improvements under Boeing’s current leadership.

Ryanair expects Boeing certification for its larger Max 10 aircraft by late summer 2026, with deliveries beginning in 2027.