Various scenarios staring Damascus in the face

Beirut: Backed by Russia and China, Bashar Al Assad does not seem ready or willing to take up the Arab League proposal to hand power over to his vice-president, and usher in a relatively felicitous transition. Under the circumstances, what may be ahead for Syria?

Civil war and sectarian strife: With increased violence, the distinct possibility of a civil war can no longer be ruled out, especially since several cities, in and around major conglomerates, were no longer controlled by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA).

Wary opposition leaders insist that President Al Assad must step down first, a condition that was unacceptable to Damascus and its supporters, and which only telegraphed intensified clashes.

What remained to be determined after the Russian veto at the Security Council was whether western powers were willing to provide the necessary material and logistical support to the Free Syrian Army (FSA).

Backed by a significant portion of the population, the FSA needed foreign technical intervention to better coordinate meagre responses, though this was easier said than done. Still, an escalation of such assistance and coordination ensured a prolonged civil war, which would cripple an increasingly strangulated Damascus.

Military coup against Al Assad: Because fighting reached the eastern suburbs of Damascus, including Rastan, the hometown of former Defence Minister Mustapha Tlass, the time could be ripe for a relatively "clean military coup d'etat," the likes of which Syria experienced a dozen times between 1949 and 1970.

To be sure, time was running out for such a scenario, because the uprising turned much more violent than many expected. Still, as the Al Assad government tottered and Syrian soldiers deserted in larger numbers, the actual chances for a military coup rose.

Officers who considered the Syrian Army the jewel institution may no longer simply stand by as civilians arm themselves.

Syrian troops who refuse to fire into crowds will gradually weaken the army, and as thousands defect and join the FSA, the Syrian brass was likely to factor in what Sunni fighters in Syria and perhaps in Iraq may be ready to do to engage the army.

Although the SAA was purged of disloyal Sunni officers a long-time ago, Alawi or Kurdish commanders could make a difference, especially if they determined that the country was on the verge of collapse. The moment a few officers conclude that Al Assad's truncated rule was leading to the gradual disintegration of the military, a coup would no longer come as a surprise.

International military intervention: Although French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe described what was happening in Syria as a "scandal," he nevertheless joined his Western counterparts gathered in New York to rule out a Libya-style military intervention, which meant that this scenario was probably not likely to occur soon.

What could not be guaranteed, however, was Turkey's critical role in any solution, including the establishment of a safe-zone along its border with Syria. In time, and depending on how world public opinion reacted to additional atrocities, the international military intervention option may be revisited.

Exporting violence regionally: According to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the status quo was unsustainable in Syria, as she warned that the resulting instability could "spill over throughout the region." Her fear was not unfounded, as many concluded Damascus would turn to its allies in Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, if international support to the FSA increased.

In other words, Damascus could interpret such backing as an attrition campaign against it and, under the circumstances, have no compunction to export violence regionally. Such a scenario would guarantee many months of bloodshed.

Presumably, neither Iran nor Hezbollah were prone to self-destruction, and it was unclear whether they would sacrifice Tehran and Beirut to save Damascus.

After months of patient negotiations, the League of Arab States have now suspended their monitoring mission in Syria, and called on the Security Council to support a plan that would see Al Assad transfer power to his vice-president, form a transitional unity government, and prepare for new parliamentary and presidential elections.

Russia opposed the plan, allegedly because it feared a UN-mandated change of leadership in a sovereign country. Now that the Moroccan resolution failed, Syrian opposition forces and the FSA were likely to seek additional Arab and Western support.

Dr Joseph A. Kechichian is an American scholar of Armenian descent. He is a commentator and author of several books on Gulf affairs.