Next 12 months crucial to Iraq's future

Abu Dhabi: The next 12 to 15 months will be very crucial for Iraq as some significant deadlines to help draw directions for the country's future are fast approaching, a noted speaker at a security conference said here yesterday (MON).

Dr. Gareth Stansfield, an expert on Middle Eastern politics at the University of Exeter, addressing the opening session of the 12th Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research annual conference on Arabian Gulf Security — Internal and External Challenges, said the period from now until mid-2008 will be of crucial formative importance for Iraq's future prospects.

The British scholar, without predicting a smooth and trouble-free process to stability in Iraq, said: “A number of significant deadlines are approaching rapidly. These include negotiations over the future of the Iraqi state, in particular whether or not the final structure will be unitary or federal.

“The passing of a new Iraqi petroleum law is also a controversial and potentially divisive issue. The future role of US and other coalition forces also has to be defined and this is connected to the need to tackle the existing militias within the country.''

He also said there are a number of territorial disputes, most notably between Kurds and Arabs in the north of the country.

However, Stansfield forecast likely of the oil-rich Kirkuk's joining Kurdistan after a referendum in September 2007.

He said all these objectives are subject to ongoing problems that raise serious doubts about the ability of the Iraqi polity to evolve and surmount the present instability.

“Direct intervention by Turkey in the north remains a possibility, while the embryonic Iraqi authority is still unable to deal effectively with Sunni insurgents and Shia militias….There is a danger that Iraq will become the theatre of a ‘proxy war' between the United States and Iran,'' he said.

However, he added the future of Iraq was intimately tied to the competition for influence in the Gulf. “Apart from the United States and the neighboring Arab states, other major actors such as Russia and China will also keep a close watch on Iranian policy in the Gulf,'' he said.

Another speaker on Iraq issue, Dr Abdullah Al Shayji, Head of American Studies Unit at University of Kuwait, called Iraq a failing state. He attributed this to the American role in Iraq, saying after four years of Iraq War, the country still remains a field of sectarian and ethnic strife and deteriorating law and order situation.

He said: “The GCC countries may expect more worst scenarios if US withdraws its troops from Iraq, as clashes between Shia and Sunni sects will further aggravate and create anarchy.

The scholar from Kuwait also predicted massacres in Iraq similar to that between Muslims and Hindus when the Indian Sub-continent was divided, creating a new state of Pakistan.

He regretted that GCC countries have so far failed to play an active role for the stability of Iraq. He urged the decision-makers in the region must have a vision and a common stand on what is going on in Iraq.