Israel’s next government: Why Eisenkot’s 67-seat backing may not be enough to end Netanyahu’s rule

Dubai: Gadi Eisenkot has been chosen to receive the mandate to form Israel’s next government, but the former military chief faces a formidable challenge: turning the support of parties representing 67 parliamentary seats into a governing coalition capable of replacing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

President Isaac Herzog’s decision to give Eisenkot the first opportunity to form a government follows the October 27 election, which left Israel’s deeply divided political parties struggling to agree on a path forward.

Although Eisenkot has secured more recommendations than Netanyahu, those endorsements do not automatically translate into votes for a new government.

The New York Times reported that the ideological, religious and ethnic divisions among the parties supporting Eisenkot could make coalition negotiations one of the toughest challenges of his political career.

The stakes are considerable. If Eisenkot fails, Netanyahu could remain caretaker prime minister while Israel faces another prolonged political deadlock or even fresh elections.

Israel’s 120-member Knesset requires a majority of at least 61 lawmakers to support a conventional majority government.

Parties holding 67 seats have recommended Eisenkot to the president, but his dependable parliamentary bloc currently accounts for just 48 seats.

These include his Yashar party with 21 seats, the centrist Together party with 12, the left-wing Democrats with eight and the right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu with seven.

Netanyahu’s established bloc has 46 seats after the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party declined to recommend him.

The remaining lawmakers belong to Arab and ultra-Orthodox parties whose participation or outside support could determine whether Eisenkot succeeds.

That is where the real difficulty begins.

Arab-led parties won a record 19 seats in the October election, potentially giving them considerable influence over the formation of Israel’s next government.

Their support could provide Eisenkot with a parliamentary majority.

But according to The New York Times, Avigdor Liberman, whose Yisrael Beiteinu party holds seven seats, has repeatedly ruled out joining a government that includes Arab parties or depends on their support.

The Joint List, which won 11 seats, has also ruled out joining a government, although it could support a minority administration from outside.

The United Arab List, or Raam, which secured eight seats, has not ruled out participation.

However, Eisenkot has insisted that any party entering his government must recognise Hamas as a terrorist organisation.

Raam leader Mansour Abbas has refused to make that declaration, although he has condemned terrorist acts and called for Hamas and other Palestinian factions to be disarmed.

These disagreements leave Eisenkot facing a difficult choice between potential Arab support and the objections of his right-wing allies.

The ultra-Orthodox parties, which together hold 13 seats, offer another possible route to a parliamentary majority.

But their central demand clashes with one of Eisenkot’s most important election commitments.

Ultra-Orthodox leaders want to protect exemptions from military service for young men in their communities.

Eisenkot and several opposition allies campaigned on requiring broader military or civilian service, arguing that the burden of national defence should be shared more equally.

With Israel’s military under considerable strain following years of conflict, the issue has become especially contentious.

The New York Times reported that Liberman has already signalled a willingness to compromise on conscription legislation in order to replace Netanyahu.

But other coalition partners, including former prime minister Naftali Bennett, made stronger campaign commitments on the issue.

Any agreement with ultra-Orthodox parties could therefore create fresh divisions within Eisenkot’s own camp.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle is that Eisenkot’s potential coalition includes parties with sharply different political priorities.

His allies range from left-wing lawmakers to secular nationalists and centrist politicians.

They agree on the need for political change but differ on questions involving religion, military service and cooperation with Arab parties.

Eisenkot has floated the idea of forming a national emergency government, suggesting that extraordinary circumstances may require political compromises.

He has also considered initially establishing a minority government, which could take office if enough lawmakers outside his bloc abstained from the confidence vote.

But Liberman has rejected forming a government without a majority of at least 61 seats.

The disagreement raises questions about whether Eisenkot can secure the parliamentary support needed even before negotiating with parties outside his established bloc.

Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister until a new government takes office.

If Eisenkot cannot assemble a coalition, Netanyahu could receive an opportunity to form one himself.

If neither succeeds, Israel could face another election unless an alternative candidate manages to secure sufficient parliamentary support.

The New York Times noted that Eisenkot is also seeking to gain control of parliament by replacing Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, a Netanyahu ally, when newly elected lawmakers are sworn in.

Such a move could give the opposition greater influence over parliamentary committees and potentially allow it to advance legislation before a new government is formed.

Opposition priorities include reversing controversial judicial changes and establishing a national commission of inquiry into the security failures preceding the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack.

For Eisenkot, the challenge is no longer simply winning political backing against Netanyahu. It is persuading parties with conflicting demands to support a common government.

The 67 recommendations give him an opportunity to try to form an administration, but they do not guarantee that his proposed coalition can survive its first parliamentary test.

His negotiations with Arab parties, ultra-Orthodox leaders and his own right-wing allies will determine whether Israel gets a new government or remains trapped in political uncertainty.

For now, the central question is whether the parties that recommended Eisenkot are prepared to make the compromises necessary to put him in office.