Arab states pay close attention

Bagdhad: As the first Iraq election results started to trickle in on Thursday, many countries in the Middle East were watching closely for clues to how the outcome will shape regional dynamics.

A victory by Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki's coalition, which initial results show leading a tight race, would likely ensure the continued presence and influence of Iran in Iraqi politics.

But majority Sunni nations are watching for a surge from Eyad Allawi's Iraqiya coalition. Allawi, a secular Shiite and former member of Saddam Hussain's Baath party, is seen as an Arab nationalist whose policies would tilt toward his Arab neighbours, rather than to Iran.

Under Saddam, Iraq was a bulwark for Arab states against the regional ambitions and influence of Iran, a Shiite regime long feared by its neighbours. Arab leaders are concerned that oil-rich Iraq could become part of an expanding sphere of Iranian influence.

"The issue here will be the reaction of Iran and the Sunni countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia," said Emad Gad, a political analyst at Cairo's Al Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.

"Iran is dealing with Iraq today as a region of Iranian influence, so Iran will refuse any Iraqi government that doesn't deal with Iran as a big brother." Saudi Arabia would likely try to isolate a new Al Maliki government to counter Iranian influence, Gad believes.

A new phase

Many in the region are watching the election with trepidation, and wondering what kind of regime will be left behind when US forces withdraw.

"We might be moving into a new phase where, as the US takes a bow the other regional players step up their own presence, but it's difficult to tell for now," says Peter Harling, the International Crisis Group's project director for Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria. "That's one of the question marks for the period to come, how the US withdrawal and the vacuum that it entails will play out regionally."

In largely Sunni Arab Jordan, home to the second-largest population of Iraqi refugees after Syria, grocer Majdi Hijazin says he worries about what will happen if Shiites or Kurds gain more power. Hijazin says that he, like most Jordanians, hopes the Sunnis will be the big winners in the election. If not, he fears Iran may further influence Iraq, which could negatively affect Jordan.

"Of course it will have an effect on us Jordanians, but it's very hard to know how exactly this election will affect us," he says. "Jordanians don't know what the Shiites will do if they come into power."

Others across the region were more disinterested than worried, viewing US praise of the election as somewhat naive and saying one election will not cause a huge political shift, or even much of a difference at all.

"Right now, the Egyptians are not interested in Iraq," said Ahmad Khalifa, a newspaper seller. "The important things are Palestine, Gaza. Iraq doesn't affect us."

Premature enthusiasm

Samir Al Taqi, director of the Orient Centre for International Studies in Damascus, called Western enthusiasm over the elections "premature." Before observers come to any conclusions about the election, he says they must first see if the new government is representative of Iraq's different ethnic groups. If not, violence and instability are likely to continue.

"The Iraqi elections were a decisive step in Iraq's path towards nation building. But we can't yet judge whether they were a success and will move Iraq forward," he says.