Yemen steps may not be enough

Sana'a:  With the revelation that as many as three dozen Americans who embraced Islam in prison may now be in Yemen, Washington has become even more concerned about the country's potential as a terrorist haven.

US officials have said they plan to increase development assistance to the impoverished country this year to about $63 million (Dh231 million).

But both Washington's concerns and its promises of aid pale in comparison to those of Saudi Arabia, which has pledged $1.25 billion for development assistance to the troubled country on its southern border.

Like the US, Saudi Arabia is deeply concerned that if the complex web of social, economic, and political problems in this strategically located country are not soon addressed, Yemen could become a redoubt for Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, the terrorist group that claimed responsibility for trying to blow up a Detroit-bound plane on Christmas Day.

But Saudi Arabia's proximity to Yemen — they share a long and rugged mountainous border — poses a host of other concerns for Riyadh.

Civil strife

They include a potentially dragged-out border conflict with Yemeni rebels that already has left at least 100 Saudis dead or missing since November, as well as the possibility of refugee-generated civil strife from a secessionist movement in Yemen's south. In addition, Yemen's worsening economic conditions could fuel militancy among an increasingly impoverished population of 23 million.

Finally, there are fears in Riyadh that Yemen's deteriorating stability could present an opportunity for meddling by Saudi Arabia's regional rival Iran, which has been publicly denouncing the Kingdom for alleged interference in Yemeni affairs. The Saudis are attempting to preempt these challenges by shoring up the government of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, despite its widespread reputation for corruption and incompetence.

Saudi Arabia has repeatedly stated its political support for President Saleh. In addition to the $1.25 billion it has pledged for development aid, it spends millions more each year to bolster Yemen's military and security institutions and buy political influence among the country's important tribal leaders.

In addition, Saudi Arabia is spending millions to build a high-tech electronic barrier along its 1,800km border with Yemen in an effort to stop crossings not only by drugs and arms dealers, but also by Al Qaida militants.

But some outside observers express fears that Riyadh and its five Gulf neighbours, who make up the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), have not yet come up with a clear strategy to deal with the festering problems of their neighbor, one of the poorest countries in the world.

Inefficient

"If you're just propping up an increasingly inefficient government whose reach doesn't really extend much beyond [the Yemeni capital of] Sana'a that's not exactly an ideal or long-term position to be in," says Kristian Ulrichsen, Kuwait Research Fellow at the London School of Economics.

Dr Ulrichsen said that Gulf policymakers he met with during a regional tour in October did not seem prepared to address Yemen's multifaceted crisis "beyond trying to contain it and support Saleh".

"I got the impression that it was so overwhelming an issue and so complex, that they were just hoping it would go away," he added.

Gerd Nonneman, a Gulf expert at Exeter University and Chatham House in London agreed, adding that the Gulf states need "a clear plan of action" to address Yemen's deep-seated troubles.

"The problem is," says Professor Nonneman, "Yemen is not well-governed and at the root of it are questions of governance at the political and economic levels, and unless those things are addressed properly, the problem is never going to go away."