All eyes on Trump as Nobel Peace Prize day nears

All eyes are on Donald Trump as the world awaits Friday’s Nobel Peace Prize announcement, with the US president openly yearning for an honour he has long claimed he “deserves.” Yet, despite his campaign for recognition and claims of brokering peace in the Middle East, experts and Norwegian officials say his chances remain remote.

Trump’s renewed push for the prize has intensified since the announcement of a ceasefire and hostage exchange between Israel and Hamas — an agreement he has called “my peace plan”. In Tel Aviv, families of hostages chanted “Nobel Prize to Trump” as news of the ceasefire broke. The former president told a gathering of military leaders last week: “Will you get the Nobel Prize? Absolutely not. They’ll give it to some guy that didn’t do a damn thing.”

The Nobel Peace Prize, awarded by a five-member committee appointed by the Norwegian parliament, recognises sustained efforts to advance peace, fraternity, and human rights. The committee met for the last time on Monday, before the Israel–Hamas agreement was reached — meaning the deal will not influence this year’s decision.

“The final touches were made on Monday,” said Erik Aasheim, spokesman for the Nobel Institute, confirming that the 2025 laureate has already been chosen.

Trump’s public lobbying has added pressure on Oslo, where the Nobel Committee operates independently of the Norwegian government. His son Eric urged followers on X to “retweet if you believe @realDonaldTrump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize,” while an official White House post called him “The Peace President.” Norwegian officials, however, stressed that the government does not and cannot interfere.

“The Nobel Committee makes its decisions independently,” said Norway’s Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide. Committee chair Jorgen Watne Frydnes also confirmed that this year’s deliberations were concluded days ago.

Even so, Trump’s rhetoric and political stature have drawn Norway into an uncomfortable spotlight. Analysts say the committee will be careful to avoid any impression of bowing to political pressure. “His prospects are a long shot,” said Nina Græger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo. “His rhetoric does not point in a peaceful perspective.”

Trump has been nominated several times since 2018, including by US Rep. Claudia Tenney for his 2020 Abraham Accords. But experts say the committee prizes long-term peacebuilding and multilateral cooperation, areas where Trump’s record is mixed.

“There’s a huge difference between getting fighting to stop in the short term and resolving root causes,” said historian Theo Zenou. “And the committee will not likely award the world’s most prestigious peace prize to someone who dismisses climate change.”

The Nobel Committee faced backlash in 2009 for awarding the prize to then-President Barack Obama just months after he took office — a precedent it is unlikely to repeat.

As anticipation builds, Norwegian officials are bracing for the diplomatic fallout. Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund has major US investments, and trade negotiations are under way in Washington. Yet experts agree that despite the political noise, the Nobel Committee will hold its line.

“The decision is made,” said Norwegian historian and Nobel watcher Asle Sveen. “Whatever happens in Gaza, Trump will have to wait — and hope for next year.”

- with inputs from Bloomberg and AFP