Karnataka wriggles out of impasse

The final shape of a coalition government in Karnataka took shape late last night, when in a rather sudden move, the Congress leadership decided not to waste any more time and announced the name of senior Congress leader Dharam Singh as the leader of the Congress Legislature party.

If things move as expected, Singh, who was the Public Works Department minister in the outgoing S.M.Krishna government, will take on the mantle of the Chief Minister, and Janata Dal(S) leader Siddaramaiah will be the Deputy Chief Minister in a coalition government of Congress and Janata Dal(S).

The dramatic announcement came after a late night meeting, the second in the day, of the Congress Legislature Party at Bangalore.

After the first meeting where a one line resolution, in typical Congress tradition, was passed authorising Congress President Sonia Gandhi to choose the leader.

However, some time later, all the legislators were called again for a meeting at 8.30 p.m , apparently after Sonia told the two central observers, Vilasrao Deshmukh and recently appointed Union Minister P.M.Sayeed, to finalise the name immediately.

Four leaders, Dharam Singh S.M.Krishna, Mallikarjun Kharge, and H.K.Patil, all four contenders for the top spot, were then taken to a room, as legislators waited in an adjacent hall in the Vidhana Soudha. Over an hour later, the two observers made the announcement with Krishna proposing the name of Singh and Kharge supporting it.

With this it looks like the Janata Dal(S) is likely to agree to a Congress-led coalition government, as one of the conditions which JD(S) Chief H.D.Deve Gowda had put before Sonia earlier was that Krishna should not be the Chief Minister. Meanwhile, the Janata Dal(S) legislature party which met earlier in the day passed a resolution authorising Gowda to proceed with working out the modalities for a coalition government.

The JD(S) had developed cracks, with many legislators expressing their choice of taking the outside support of BJP and to form their own government.

But it was ironed out after hectic consultations in the last 18 hours.

Now the scene will shift to Delhi, where Gowda and Sonia Gandhi along with Dharam Singh and other leaders will start working out the modalities of the new government.

However for the record, Gowda and his party leaders are still insisting that they should head the Government and not Congress.

But the big question still remains on how stable will it be and how long it can last.

The people of Karnataka who had always voted decisively and gave one or the other party a clear mandate, except in 1983, have posed a serious challenge to all the political parties.

The Congress leaders from the state insist that this is the only model, which can work, as they are the larger party (65 seats to JD (S) 58 seats).

But the crucial point is that Congress and JD (S) do not belong to the same stock. JD (S) has essentially been an anti-Congress force in the state for more than 25 years, ever since the days following the emergency when the Janata party was formed.

The cadres and most of the leaders of Janata Dal (S) in every village and taluk not to talk at the state level, have been aggressively anti-Congress, and that's what has kept them going, as the Governments changed hands alternatively between the two forces, since 1985.

Can these cadres and leaders come together, even if the leaders at the state level decide to compromise and form a coalition government? What are the consequences of such an unholy alliance on the long-term political scenario in Karnataka? Who would benefit most from this kind of an alliance in short and long run?

It is evident that when it comes to sharing the spoils of power, the two parties will see a bitter and acrimonious battle of one-upmanship.

Even if they finally settle it, the bad taste it will leave is likely to fester long enough to create a wedge at any moment. So the very survival and stability of such a government is under doubt.

Secondly, this alliance, apparently coming together to avert a communal government from coming to power would be seen by the people as an act of extreme opportunism, especially of the Congress, which has been rejected clearly by the people, having reduced them from 140 plus seats to just 65. So for them to make this backdoor entry is bound to be resented.

Moreover, the Janata Dal (S) sharing power with the Congress also is going to be resented, as the leadership as well as cadres had fought a bitter electoral battle until just a couple of weeks back, with serious charges hurled at the S.M. Krishna Government. Their prestige is not going to be enhanced by joining a government led by Congress.

Therefore the beneficiaries in long term, why even medium term is going to be the BJP, which going by the Lok Sabha results in Karnataka has a clear mandate of the people (18 out of 28 seats), though in the Assembly it has fallen far short of the 113 seats required for a majority by getting only 79 seats.

If and when the coalition government of Congress- JD (S) falls, which it can be safely assumed now would not be too far away, the BJP could return with a majority of its own.