Trump claims the US is 'building more weapons than ever' — what the contracts show
Pentagon ramps up munitions output amid depleted stockpiles from Iran war
President Donald Trump said the US is making more military equipment and munitions than at any time in its history.
The contracts back a historic expansion, but they also show how thin the arsenal became during the Iran war.
The claim
Trump made the remark, posted on Nov. 10, saying US defence firms are building "more plants than ever" and are building new Patriots, Tomahawks and terminal high-altitude area defence (THAAD) systems.
Trump's claim, however, is about a "surge" in capacity under construction, not output today.
Here's what's been announced so far:
The contracts
THAAD: Lockheed Martin received a $35.3 billion, seven-year production contract on June 24, per Tech Times.
PAC-3: A $58.6 billion, seven-year Lockheed contract awarded July 29 runs through fiscal 2032 and is the largest in the program’s history.
Tomahawk: RTX signed a $22.9 billion contract in July. RTX now has four multiyear Pentagon contracts worth about $70 billion covering Tomahawk, AMRAAM, SM-6 and SM-3 IB.
Suppliers: Northrop Grumman received over $3 billion in framework deals for PAC-3 and THAAD components. Lockheed is placing a $14.7 billion Boeing order to triple PAC-3 seeker production.
BY THE NUMBERS
Planned annual capacity is rising from roughly 600 to 2,000 PAC-3 interceptors by 2030 and from 96 to 400 THAAD interceptors.
Tomahawks go from about 60 a year to more than 1,000.
SM-6 (Standard Missile-6 naval interceptor missile developed by RTX (Raytheon) for the Navy and allied forces) ramps from about 125 to over 500.
Lockheed says it will invest more than $8 billion through 2030.
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What the war with Iran exposed
A peacetime buying model: The Pentagon had long bought munitions year to year, program by program, per Fox News.
Depleted stockpiles: CNN reported, citing sources, that the US military used nearly 80% of its THAAD interceptors and roughly half its Patriots. Reuters reported “virtually all” long-range precision missiles were used.
Cost and pace: More Patriot interceptors reportedly fired in the first three days than were provided to Ukraine in four years, at $3 million to $4 million each, while THAAD runs up to $12 million, according to Newsweek.
Supply chain chokepoints: Solid rocket motors are the biggest constraint. Northrop became the second supplier for PAC-3 motors.
Why it matters
Interceptors protect more than US troops.
Patriot and THAAD interceptors are the main defence against ballistic missiles for US forces, Israel and Gulf partners.
The Center of Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) warns that diminished stockpiles may force the US and its coalition partners to take more risks with interceptions, adding that there are no good alternatives to the two-systems for ballistic missile defence.
CSIS estimated the military may have fired as much as 67% of its Patriots and 48% of its THAADs since the war began.
CSIS estimated the US had about 2,200 Patriots of its two most-modernized variants and 452 THAAD missiles before the war.
One industry estimate shows it could take the US military 3 years to restock its missile defences.
Why shortages limit a longer war
CSIS analyst Mark Cancian warned that if the war continued at its recent pace, stockpiles would shrink enough to bring a new, higher level of risk in the Indo-Pacific.
There are no THAAD deliveries forecast in 2026. At current delivery schedules, the Pentagon receives roughly 15 Tomahawks and 20 Patriots a month, according to analysts.
Production is ramping up, but CSIS says the US has enough munitions for any plausible scenario in the Iran war. Shortages limit how long the US can fight Iran or deter China.
CSIS projects restoring Patriot, THAAD and Tomahawk stockpiles to prewar levels will take at least three years.
Trump earlier said the US had “virtually unlimited” munitions, a claim analysts disputed, according to Tech Times.
The three-year timeline
CSIS projects that Tomahawk, THAAD and Patriot stocks will take three or more years to return to prewar levels.
It said the US used more than 1,000 Tomahawks, and existing orders won’t fully restore inventories until early 2029.
Another summary of CSIS projections puts Patriot recovery around mid-2029, THAAD at the end of 2029 and Tomahawk in late 2030 or early 2031.
CSIS has also said "three to five years" under projected delivery schedules. The group warned of “a window of vulnerability for several years.”
The China question
The risk is greatest in the Western Pacific.
CSIS noted that China has no recent combat experience and performed poorly in its last war, against Vietnam in 1979, which may preserve deterrence until inventories are restored.
Others are less sanguine.
MIT’s Eric Heginbotham said China is not well positioned to exploit US distraction in the short term, but that restoring stockpiles will take years, "perhaps decades", giving it plenty of time.
He said the war "weakens deterrence" in significant ways.
What experts say about Trump’s 'virtually unlimited' claim
Trump said the US has “virtually unlimited amounts of Mid to High Grade Ammunition.”
Analysts dispute this.
Christopher Chivvis, a former high-ranking US intelligence official who worked for RAND, said the claim “sounds fictional” for any relevant time horizon.
Chivvis currently serves as the senior fellow and director of the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
CSIS draws a distinction: The US is sufficient for the Iran war, but it is not sufficient to keep Pacific deterrence at planned levels.
The Pentagon has said it has everything it needs to execute any mission. CSIS agrees about Iran but warns of the Pacific gap.
What's next
Delivery data in 2027 will be closely watched by analysts, alongside a war supplemental, and whether Washington can rebuild interceptors before fighting resumes, if peace efforts fizzle out.
RTX says its critical munitions output is up above 90% year over year.
Delivery milestones, Congress’s funding decisions, and whether interceptors can be rebuilt before the war re-escalates, or a peace deal is reached, will be closely watched on the battlefield.
