Texas Senate race becomes costliest in US history at $573 million

The Texas Senate race has become the most expensive non-presidential contest in US electoral history, with political advertising spending and reservations reaching $573 million ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections, according to advertising intelligence firm AdImpact.

The record-breaking expenditure comes as Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico battle for a Senate seat in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the upper chamber since 1988.

Despite a substantial Republican advantage in advertising, the latest New York Times/Siena University poll puts Talarico ahead of Paxton by seven percentage points, raising Democratic hopes of an upset in the traditionally Republican state.

According to AdImpact’s October 30 analysis, the Texas contest has attracted $165.7 million in primary advertising spending and another $407.5 million in general election spending and reservations. The latter figure includes advertising bookings, rather than only money already spent.

Texas is only the second non-presidential contest to cross the $500 million threshold, after the 2024 Ohio Senate race, which recorded $542.7 million. This year’s Ohio contest has also exceeded that mark, reaching $514.3 million.

It is the first election cycle in which two non-presidential races have crossed $500 million in political advertising, AdImpact said.

Republicans have established a $140.7 million advertising advantage over Democrats in the Texas general election, reversing the spending pattern seen during the early months of the campaign.

Until mid-August, Democratic advertisers had spent $21.4 million, compared with just $2.5 million by Republicans.

But Republican spending subsequently accelerated. From the week beginning August 25 through election week, Republican advertisers outspent Democrats by an average of $15.3 million weekly. In the week of September 15 alone, the Republican advantage reached $29.2 million.

Much of the increase came from Republican-aligned outside groups.

Texas PAC, aligned with the Senate Leadership Fund, spent $182.1 million supporting Paxton and attacking Talarico, making it the eighth-largest advertiser of the current election cycle.

Overall, Paxton received $251.7 million in advertising support from outside groups, compared with $30.6 million for Talarico.

Outside groups accounted for 92 per cent of Paxton’s advertising support, against 23 per cent for his Democratic rival.

The advertising battle has also been dominated by attacks. According to AdImpact, 61 per cent of broadcast airings were negative or contrast advertisements.

Democrats concentrated on taxation, healthcare and corruption, while Republicans emphasised crime, transgender minors and taxation.

Despite the Republican spending advantage, the final New York Times/Siena University survey, released on November 1, showed Talarico leading Paxton by 50 per cent to 43 per cent.

The survey of 1,215 likely Texas voters had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

The polling also showed Democrats ahead in Senate contests in Michigan, Maine, Kansas, Ohio and Alaska, while Iowa remained virtually tied.

Siena Research Institute executive director Don Levy said Democratic control of the Senate was a possibility, but cautioned that a majority for either party remained within reach.

The findings underline the uncertainty surrounding the battle for Senate control as voters prepare to cast their ballots on November 3.