U.S. lobs unity ball to UN members

As it launches an all-out lobbying campaign to gain United Nations approval, the Bush administration has begun to characterise the decision facing the Security Council not as whether there will be war against Iraq, but whether council members are willing to irrevocably destroy the world body's legitimacy by failing to follow the U.S. lead, senior U.S. and diplomatic sources said.

In meetings Monday with senior officials in Moscow, Under Secretary of State John R. Bolton told the Russian government that "we're going ahead," whether the council agrees or not, a senior administration official said. "The council's unity is at stake here."

A senior diplomat from another council member said his government had heard a similar message and was told not to anguish over whether to vote for war. "You are not going to decide whether there is war in Iraq or not," the diplomat said U.S. officials told him.

"That decision is ours, and we have already made it. It is already final. The only question now is whether the council will go along with it or not."

President Bush has continued to say he has not yet decided whether to go to war. But the message being conveyed in high-level contacts with other council governments is that a military attack on Iraq is inevitable, these officials and diplomat said.

What they must determine, U.S. officials are telling these governments, is if their insistence that UN weapons inspections be given more time is worth the destruction of council credibility at a time of serious world upheaval.

"We're going to try to convince people that their responsibilities as members of the Security Council necessitate a vote that will strengthen the role of the council in international politics," national security adviser Condoleezza Rice said Monday.

Rice mentioned North Korea and Iran as issues where "the international community has a lot of hard work to do .... And so we're going to try to convince people that the Security Council needs to be strong."

Iraq, Rice told reporters in a White House briefing, "is an important issue, a critically important issue for the United States. ... So nobody should underestimate ... the importance of America's resolve in getting this done."

The lobbying campaign went into full gear last weekend, as the administration prepared for Monday's introduction by the United States, Britain and Spain of a new council resolution declaring Baghdad in violation of UN demands.

Although the resolution does not specifically authorise the use of military force, it is understood among all council members that approval is tantamount to agreement on a war.

The administration maintains such approval already exists in previous resolutions, but has bowed to the wishes of London and Madrid, its main council allies, who believe a new vote will quell massive anti-war feeling in their own countries.

A number of other countries outside the council have said their support for war depends on a new resolution.

While the council will hear an updated assessment of inspections in Iraq by chief UN inspector Hans Blix on March 7, senior administration officials said that his report is largely immaterial to the vote-getting process.

Now that the new resolution has been introduced, council rules say "we have the right to ask for a vote within 24 hours," an official said. Although it is likely to fall after Blix's report, the moment of choice will be based on the vote count and little else, the official said.

The administration holds out scant hope of repeating last fall's unanimous council tally, when all 15 members agreed to demand Iraq submit to a tough new weapons inspections. Three of the five permanent members with veto power - France, Russia and China - have called for a war decision to be postponed while inspections continue.

Of the 10 non-permanent members, only Spain and Bulgaria currently support the U.S. position; Syria and Germany are considered definite no's, and Pakistan either a no or an abstention.

All five of the others - three in Africa and two in Latin America - are crucial to obtaining the nine votes necessary for non-vetoed passage. Last weekend, Bush telephoned Mexican President Vicente Fox and Chilean President Ricardo Lagos to ask for their votes but received no firm committment, officials said.

Bush telephoned Angolan President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos earlier this month, and Assistant Secretary of State Walter H. Kansteiner III last weekend began a tour of the capitals of Angola, Guineau and Cameroon.

For some, particularly among the key five non-permanent members, there are additional pressure points beyond an appeal to council unity.

"They want support for the resolution," said a diplomat from one of the five. "They are not offering anything," or threatening reprisals, he said, "They are anticipating trouble if there is not support ... (and) quietly sending the message that the United States would consider it an unfriendly act."

But another council diplomat said: "There is no mention of any sort of threat or pressure. None whatsoever." Instead, he said, "The conversation is very simple. There is a description of why they've presented a resolution, an objection to the piecemeal approach" of ongoing inspections, and insistence that "the council has to demonstrate that it is capable of taking decisions."

Even France, which has led the current council majority asking for more inspections, has repeatedly spoken of unity as the primary council goal.