The reality of Arafat hangs over Sharon

Last week, I wrote an article for this newspaper saying that Yasser Arafat was achieving a reputation for himself among the Palestinians "almost as similar as that of the late Egyptian leader Gamal Abdul Nasser."

A Gulf News reader responded to my article saying that Arafat was nowhere close to being a legend before his own people. All this was said before Israeli troops came storming into Arafat's office on March 29, killing off hundreds of Palestinians.

Unwillingly, Ariel Sharon has supported my argument, boosting Arafat's image throughout Arab circles like no person before him. On all accounts, Arafat is being hailed as a legend in Arab circles today and praised for his bravery by everyone - enemy and ally alike.

This unmatched popularity for the Palestinian leader has no doubt angered many Israelis, especially Prime Minister Sharon, who as time is proving, is obsessed with Yasser Arafat. He was seemingly not joking last year when he declared, "I am sorry I did not kill him in Beirut." One thing is clear today, however, and it is that the latest escalation and blood will lead to the downfall of either Ariel Sharon or Yasser Arafat - or both.

On a personal level, and one cannot be but sentimental under such circumstances, I do not believe that Arafat will fall. The Israelis cannot risk making a martyr out of him. The last Palestinian leader of Arafat's popularity who was killed by the Jews was Izz al-Dinn al-Quassam. He died in combat in 1936 and today, 65 years later, an armed militia is fighting in his name and missiles labelled "Quassam 2" are being launched into Israel.

This is a danger that Sharon simply cannot bequeath to his grandchildren.

However, the desire to keep Arafat alive is not enough to guarantee Arafat's safety, as U.S. President Bush said. After all, Arafat is only human, and under tremendous stress, suffering from illness, lack of proper food, and at the age of 73, the Palestinian leader can suffer a heart attack and drop dead at any minute.

I have lived under shelling in Beirut, nowhere close to what Arafat is experiencing, and I know how stressful it is to be under attack. Would Israel then take responsibility for his death? Could it afford making a Izzal-Dinn al-Quassam out of him?

Nobody knows how destructive killing Arafat can be more than Arafat himself. In an interview with an Arab channel, he angrily asked, "Where do they think they are coming? Don't they realise that this will vibrate the Middle East?"

On a Palestinian level, all factions of the national movement have united under Abu Ammar's leadership. Even those whom he had arrested, deported or killed, are all united behind him in an extraordinary show of solidarity.

Arab anger

The Arab public is also boiling with unperceived support for Palestine and Arafat. Through-out the region, parades, demonstrations and speeches have been made in favour of Arafat and his heroic stance.

Even in Syria, where the masses have been taught to hate Yasser Arafat as much as they are taught to hate Israel, parades have taken place in Damascus carrying pictures of Abu Ammar. In Damascus, demonstrators carried photos of Arafat, Bashar Al Assad and Gamal Abdul Nasser. Demonstrators smashed automobiles, shop windows, and street billboards,demanding more support for the Intifada.

In Libya, demonstrators took place attended by half a million citizens, headed by Muammar Gaddafi calling on Arab states to either fight back or dissolve their armies in disgrace.

Syria for example, despite the demonstrations, has not issued a formal statement offering him recognition. Since March 29, Syria's state run newspapers have printed front-page news of the massacres in Palestine, making no reference to Arafat. In Egypt and Jordan, President Hosni Mubarak and King Abdullah have failed to respond to popular demand and expel Israeli ambassadors from their capitals.

It must be noted that according to the Camp David Accord of 1978 and the Wadi Araba Accord of 1994, Egypt and Jordan can withdraw their ambassadors from Tel Aviv and expel the Israeli ambassador from their capitals - such an act would not be a violation of the peace accords.

Instead, authorities in both countries have resorted to beating demonstrators with water pumps, clubs, and tear gas. More than any other countries in the Middle East, Egypt and Jordan are threatened by the escalation in Israel and it is not doubtful that both regimes will receive serious threats from their citizens if they continue to crackdown on public sentiment.

They forget that movements hostile to leaders' treatment of the Palestinian issue in 1949 and 1952 toppled the regimes of Syria and Lebanon respectively.

The fact that both King Abdullah and President Mubarak did not attend the Arab Summit in Beirut, which ended one day before the massacre, does not make it easier for both leaders. They are suspected of having known of Sharon's intentions beforehand and therefore, did not bother to attend the Arab Summit.

Mubarak even stunned audiences by contacting the Palestinian leader and offering to send him an airplane to transport him to Cairo for safety - something which Sharon would have loved but which Arafat flatly turned down. The story, although not covered in the Arab press, was nevertheless reported in the London-based The Independent which is highly accurate in its news.

Panic in Israel

Meanwhile, as anger and chaos took over the Arab world, panic prevailed in Israel. To date, Sharon has not lost support of the Israeli public, but it takes a few more weeks of martyr bombings to do the trick and destroy the patience of the Israeli public.

Elected as prime minister in February 2001, Sharon promised his people three things: security, peace, and economic revival. To date, none of them have been achieved. Security is non-existent, with more Israelis killed in the past year than in all of Israel's recent history. Peace is also dead, with Sharon having killed the last elements of the Oslo Accords by occupying cities under Palestinian jurisdiction.

According to a report from Finance Minister Silvan Shalom, Israel has suffered huge financial damage to the economy since the Intifada broke out in September 2000.

Kofi Anan best described the situation on April 1 by saying that only a "reckless optimist" would say that the worse is over in the Middle East. It is clear that so long as Sharon is in power, violence will continue and he will continue to crush the Palestinian movement, thinking that Arafat and his people will surrender. They will continue to fight and inflict damage on Israel to an extent where Israel cannot sustain losses any longer. Only then will Sharon fall.

Other options, such as relying on Arab, EU, or American support, or expanding the conflict to a regional war, have been crossed off the option list. The Palestinians can rely on some Arab organisations, like Hezbollah, for arms and certain Arab countries, like Syria and Lebanon, to harbour the resistance movements.

"To hell with the Arabs, the Palestinians are the only Arabs left" is a phrase being heard over and over throughout nationalistic Arab circles. As I am wrapping up this article, I can see on television the Israeli Army has bombarded a mo