Syria firm amid gathering tempest

Faced with the likelihood of war next door in Iraq, Syria has positioned itself as both defender of its Arab neighbour and promoter of good relations with the United States.

To carry out the balancing act, the government of President Bashar Assad has devised a formula that it believes can satisfy the Bush administration: The war, officials in Damascus say, would be bad not only for Syria, but also for the United States.

"We don't see how this serves American interests," said the Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Butheina Shaban. "At the least, there will be more anger directed at the United States throughout the Arab world."

Like other Middle East countries, Syria has looked for the cover of the United Nations to provide a means of giving in to what officials in the region regard as inevitable. Several foreign diplomats here in Damacus said Syria would prefer that the UN Security Council specifically authorise war against Iraq before any U.S. attack.

Syria voted in favour of Resolution 1441, which demanded that Iraq give up weapons of mass destruction and gave UN inspectors new powers to verify compliance. But the Syrians contend their vote was a means of pressuring Iraq to disarm, not to give the United States a green light for war.

"An additional UN resolution would be a blessing for Syria, as it would for many other Arab states," said a foreign diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Should bombs begin to fall, Syria will take a passive role, Syrian officials say. "We'll have to wait and see what happens," Shaban said.

This wait-and-see attitude is a difficult position for a country that habitually describes itself as a leader of the Arab world. But caution seems the better part of diplomacy, Syrians say. There are too many uncertainties for Syria to take a tougher stand, and there is no significant bloc of Arab states opposed to U.S. plans that Syria could join.

"Syria has to go along," said Nahed Houssaini, a Damascus journalist. "It can't get out ahead of anyone."

Syria has contributed to the war on terrorism by providing intelligence to the United States on the Al Qaida network. On the other hand, it hosts an office of Islamic Jihad, a Palestinian group responsible for bombings of civilians in Israel, and helps Hizbollah, a Lebanese Shiite Muslim movement that the U.S. State Department lists as a terrorist organisation.

Damascus regards itself as a standard-bearer for international law, particularly regarding Israel's occupation of the Golan Heights, yet it has tolerated an illicit oil trade and permitted arms to be taken across Syrian territory to Iraq, both in violation of UN resolutions.

If there is logic to these contradictions, it appears to lie in Syria's worldview. Hosting Islamic Jihad is officially a means of supporting the Palestinian battle against continued Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, not backing terrorism in general.

Shaban said that the office in Damascus does not carry out terrorist attacks, but serves as a political centre. Backing for Hizbollah was aimed at halting Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon, which ended in May 2000.

These two missions do not contradict the decision to support the U.S. campaign against Al Qaida, Syrians say. They point out that battles against religious extremists marked the long rule of Bashar Assad's late father, Hafez.

The oil trade with Iraq was strictly an economic decision, Syrians and foreign observers say.

Syria has dismissed Secretary of State Colin L. Powell's complaints that the deliveries breached UN rules. The Syrians responded that Jordan and Turkey, both U.S. allies, receive shipments, so it is unjust to complain only about Syria.

The Syrian government has refused to discuss the reports of arms traffic. Recently, documents from a weapons facility in Bosnia indicated that jet parts were shipped through Syria into Iraq. U.S. officials said a ship seized at sea by Croatian officials carried rocket fuel and was destined for Iraq via the Syrian port of Tartus.

In any case, everyone seems to agree that Syria is far more worried about the economic consequences of war than the survival of President Saddam Hussain. Hussain and Hafez Assad were long at odds, each claiming the mantle of leadership of the Baath Party. Syrians blame the Iraqis for promoting terrorist strikes against Syria in the early 1980s.

Trade with Iraq has expanded in the past few years. Iraq buys products ranging from shoes to textiles to foodstuffs. The oil trade began in 1997, with Iraq providing around 150,000 barrels a day at discount prices. This allowed Syria to export its own crude at market prices and pocket the difference.