Root causes of Israeli, Palestinian problem

As President George W. Bush tries to put his economic house in order - an issue that many Americans believe should have long ago received his top attention - and simultaneously respond to Iraq's new challenge to produce any evidence about their alleged prohibited arsenal, Israel is going about its election campaign willy-nilly.

Traditionally, U.S. administrations have favoured working with the Labor Party, none could stomach the rightist Likud until the arrival of this Bush administration. And a clear sign of how the U.S. administration feels about Israel's current right-wing leadership is the recent appointment of Elliott Abrams, who The New York Times described as "a pugnacious conservative and passionate advocate of Israel," as the director of Middle Eastern affairs at the White House.

Abrams, whose selection does not need Congressional approval, was further described as "a fierce opponent of the Oslo peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians."

He, for example, had faulted President Bill Clinton for trusting Palestinian President Yasser Arafat and had "advocated that position from the start of this Bush administration," the Times continued, "until it became Mr. Bush's position last June."

More significantly, his associates were reportedly saying that Abrams, a former assistant secretary of state, is likely to side with pro-Israel Americans "who say that the road map pressed by Secretary (of State Colin) Powell does not make it sufficiently clear that Arafat must be removed and that terrorism must cease entirely, before Israel makes any irretrievable concessions on withdrawal from Palestinian territories."

But Abrams is best remembered here as an Iran-Contra player who had pleaded guilty for withholding information from Congress about the Reagan administration's role in the Contra affair. He was later pardoned by the first Bush president.

Although Sharon won his party's nomination as the next prime minister should he win the election on January 28, his arch-rival Benjamin Netanyahu and firm opponents of Palestinian statehood topped the Likud list running for the 120-seat Knesset.

Sharon's defence minister of choice, Shaul Mofaz, the former army chief of staff, did not rank among the top 10 Likud Party leaders; he dropped to the 12th position - a glaring embarrassment for the prime minister.

There is very little evidence in the various polls to date that the Israeli voter is willing to abandon the "grandfatherly" figure of Sharon although an equally sizeable percentage of voters seems to support unilateral withdrawal from the occupied Palestinian territories, the dismantling of colonies - as advocated by the new Labor Party leader Amram Mitzna, the former mayor of Haifa.

"This perhaps looks contradictory, yet it is understandable," explained Dr. Basel Ghattas, general director of the Galilee Society, the largest and the most recognised Palestinian NGO in Israel, and co-founder of the Arab National Democratic Assembly in Israel, which is represented in the Israeli parliament or Knesset by the popular Dr. Azmi Bishara.

"The Israeli Jewish people are confused by the continuous intifada, now more than two years old, and an Israeli unity government that is not advocating peace or offering an alternative."

But he believes that Israelis have begun to realise that "there will be no peace without having a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza - even Likud voters think so." He gave this as the reason for the new tone by Sharon - "the clearer voice" - advocating a demilitarised Palestinian state on 42 per cent of the occupied territory.

Although Dr. Ghattas sees a Sharon comeback, he is hopeful that he would only be able to form a right-wing coalition government with a little over 60 votes - a wobbly outcome that could topple the government at any time and thus open the door for new elections in a couple of years.

This will only be possible if Mitzna's Labor Party would refuse to join in a coalition government as did his two discredited predecessors - Benjamin Ben Eliezer, the defence minister, and Shimon Peres, Labor's elder statesman.

Whatever jockeying takes place in the next few weeks, the Israeli voters must come to the realisation that a Palestinian-Israeli settlement will not be achieved until they squarely face the key issues that are dividing Israelis and Palestinians - Jerusalem, the colonies and the right of return.

Dr. Ghattas believes that the Labor Party stands to gain if it can ignite a debate in the next few weeks about the "root causes" of the problems. How far can Mitzna go in offering an alternative to the failed policies of the Likud which have not brought security any closer?

But with the absent American support he may not be able to tilt the balance to his discredited party that has given cover to Sharon's bloody policies.