Pressure builds on Jamali ties with president

What would be the fate of Pakistan Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali in 2004?
That is one of the key questions to be addressed by a number of political analysts at western embassies in Islamabad as they prepare their year-end reports and outlook for the coming year, according to senior western diplomats.

The future of Jamali's regime has been at the centre of rumours and speculation for at least three months, with analysts searching for credible answers to questions over pressures surrounding the prime minister's relationship with the President General Pervez Musharraf.

"Pakistan's politics as you know has been unsettled for a long time" said one senior western diplomat. "Now, many people want to know if there's any truth in speculation that Jamali may lose out in his discord with the president" he added.

Senior government officials, however, insist that there is no substance to such reports, arguing that claims of an emerging rift between the president and the prime minister, come in large part from the Pakistani opposition.

"The prime minister continues to do everything exactly what the president wants. Why should he (Jamali) lose out" said a senior government official in Islamabad.

But speculation over Jamali's future has only gathered further momentum with the latest forecast on Pakistan for 2004 carried in a special issue of The Economist, the UK based weekly.

"General Musharraf's relationship with his prime minister, Zafarullah Jamali, is also fraught. The president would like to see parliament run more effectively" said the weekly, citing a report from the Economist Intelligence Unit. "He (General Musharraf) may decide to replace Jamali with the commerce minister (and owner of the Pepsi-Cola franchise in Punjab), Humayun Akhtar Khan".

However, western diplomats in Islamabad said, it was still too early to identify a replacement for Jamali. In recent months amid reports of Musharraf's dissatisfaction with the new government, names of prospective prime ministers for the future have included Shaukat Aziz, the Finance Minister and Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri, the Foreign Minister.

"Its possible that Jamali may survive against expectations as there could be limitations on Musharraf too" agreed another western diplomat.

"Musharraf may not be satisfied with the workings of the government, but removing the prime minister just over a year since elections, is bound to be seen globally as a setback to Pakistan's democracy".