Politics of sludge, fudge, drudge will continue

Stand on the edge of every decade and go berserk. Make the wildest predictions you can imagine, and check them out with facts as they unfold through the years. How many of us, of those who claim to be sane, would have predicted on the last day of 1989 that within two years the Soviet Union would be heaving mass of rubble, surviving as the original Mother Russia but deprived now of the many sons she had forced into her nest by war and chicanery over the previous 200 years.

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I am sure you see the point of this preamble. I am merely protecting myself in case I get all my predictions wrong, as I am of course I predict I will do.

Assembly elections: The Congress will win in Himachal Pradesh, for the usual reason: Because it does not expect to. It does not have to do anything to win this state, apart from hang around. Anti-incumbency is so strong in these hills that the voter will replace the BJP with the nearest alternative. The BJP's attempts to create a pseudo-Gujarat will fail in Himachal, and all talk of "Himachali pride" raise little more than a snigger.

This will not be a vote for Sonia, although her closed-circuit intelligentsia will try to present it as the "answer" to the drubbing in Gujarat. This will be a vote for a new chief minister who comes from Himachal rather than Italy. Proof that Sonia cannot change the prevailing mood, either way, will come from Rajasthan, where the BJP will win easily and Vasundhara Scindia take over as chief minister. And despite his charms, Digvijay Singh could find it difficult to win a third term in Madhya Pradesh, completing the Congress retreat from the Hindi heartland.

Maharashtra: More dismal news for the Congress. Since there is no Assembly election scheduled in this state, the Congress can't lose one. But it could lose the government, because of the increasing disenchantment of Sharad Pawar with the Congress.

Sonia will not bend from the arrogant stance she has taken towards Congress members who are seen to be wary of permanent family rule, because her personal future means more to her than the future of the party. Those who could have been allies of the Congress will find this one attitude unacceptable, just as Sonia will find anything other than this unacceptable. Growing distance will lead to drift, which will become a rift. Government will crumble under the weight of contradictions, particularly as Sharad Pawar begins to chart an independent route to the 2004 general elections.

Gujarat: Narendra Modi is likely to get so much stability he won't know what to do with it. He is a political player, not an administrator. Running a government will bore him. Fresh pastures will drum up his adrenalin. Sonia, by making him a superhero, has also put him onto a different trajectory. He will not waste his year by worrying over a mere Gujarat. He will make a bid to become president of the BJP after Venkaiah Naidu, and lead his party into the general elections of 2004. The major resistance to him will come not from the elderly triumvirate of Vajpayee, Advani and Joshi but the younger crowd: Pramod Mahajan, Sushma Swaraj and company, who, naturally, will be the first victims of Modi's ambitions.

Atal Bihari Vajpayee: There will be no challenge to the benign supremacy of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the fluctuating authority of Lal Krishna Advani or the status of all the status-quoists who constitute the Cabinet. Token changes will be recorded on page one of newspapers: As, for instance, the induction of Farooq Abdullah into the Cabinet, possibly as minister without portfolio so that he can get his perks without actually having to do a job.

The politics of sludge, fudge and drudge will continue, as the tried and tested formula for survival in a coalition. Periodically the prime minister attempts to use his moral authority to stress government energies in the direction of a vision (infrastructure, peace in South Asia or disinvestments) but since no one will entertain any idea that entails electoral risk, nothing much will happen.

Politically, the PM will give his personal attention to Jammu and Kashmir, attempting to find solutions through the elected state government. Expect a crisis in summer that will once again be neutralised, not by the armed forces, but by telephone calls. (Thank God for instant international dialling.) The prime minister will have a perfectly contented 2003 and holiday in Andamans in the last week of December 2003.

Sonia Gandhi: What happens when an irresistible demand for common sense encounters an immovable object at the head of the Congress? The immovable object wins. Sonia will remain the president of the Congress and claimant to the prime ministership. Not even a miserable performance in the Assembly elections will persuade her to see where the good of her party lies. She will lead the Congress to its worst ever performance in the general elections of 2004 (probably in the Spring), after which she will tearfully admit that she has to take responsibility and then suggest that the party make her daughter its president.
Congress Leadership: What's that?

Left: Will preserve what's Left.

Arun Shourie: With any serious policy initiative placed on hold as the last phase of this government's term begins, he will increasingly turn to his first love, and spend even more time as surrogate editor of a friendly newspaper.

George W. Bush: Will match his father in the speed of decline just as he emulated his dad in his crisis-driven rise in popularity. Has told everyone that he will go to war against Saddam Hussain in February, and is now contemplating whether Saddam will be killed within two days of this war by advancing American troops or missiles, or whether it will take longer. Will have no idea what to do in victory; and even less about what to do in a stalemate. Under pressure will manufacture Bushisms at pre-election rate. Democrats will quietly turn to the Clintons to give them a candidate for 2004. The Clintons might make an unsurprising offer for the Democratic nomination.

Saddam Hussain: This time he will not make a speech promising the Mother of all Battles. This time, while there will be sympathy for his plight in the Muslim world, the Muslim street will not erupt in his favour. Just before the promised American invasion of Iraq, a group of Saddam sympathisers (probably led by Russia) will persuade him to leave Baghdad and go into exile where his life will be protected. He may be tempted, although he will be reluctant to accept the validity of any such guarantee. After all, which country is safe from the long reach of an American-backed war crimes tribunal?


M.J. Akbar is editor of The Asian Age.