MILF still poses a serious threat says spy report

Despite the military takeover of its major camps in central and southern Mindanao two years ago, the separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) has remained a potent force that could deal a severe blow to government forces if ever peace negotiations between the two sides break down, an intelligence assessment said.

"Two years after the Abubakar campaign, the situation in Mindanao has not changed considerably, with the MILF still maintaining control over certain areas and large deployments of AFP (armed forces of the Philippines) units on the island," according to a recent assessment by the National Intelligence Coordinating Agency (NICA).

The Abubakar campaign pertains to an offensive carried out by the AFP between April and June, 2000, when major MILF camps, including camp Abubakar Al Siddique in Maguindanao, were captured by government forces.

The NICA paper also posed the question: "If the agreements were scuttled and fighting resumed, does the armed forces of the Philippines have the capability to inflict a decisive and crushing defeat on the MILF?"

According to the document, the answer was "no".

During the campaign to retake camp Abubakar and 44 other MILF camps in 2000, the paper says: "The objective was the camps. This time, what will be the objective?"

Since the 2000 offensive, the MILF has chosen to adopt guerrilla warfare instead of confronting the AFP head-on in the battlefield, minimising its losses and keeping the organisation intact.

"For a military campaign to succeed it must identify a centre of gravity whose capture or elimination will result in the collapse of the enemy," the paper says.

"What is the MILF centre of gravity that will define the objectives of the campaign and make it worthwhile in the first place? The 2000 campaign proved that it was not the camps. In fact, the loss of the camps did not diminish the capability of the MILF because they managed to regroup and establish new camps again."

The paper calls attention to lessons learned from the Abubakar campaign. "Estimates of MILF losses during the half-year campaign were put at approximately five per cent of the entire force," the paper says.

"Clearly not enough to even disrupt severely the organisation. The MILF leadership, following the campaign, announced a shift toward guerrilla tactics but the difficulty the AFP experienced in pursuit operations allowed them to immediately regroup and, in some cases, re-establish camps in certain part of Central Mindanao."

During the offensive, 76 per cent of the military's fighting strength of 175,000 was deployed on the entire island of Mindanao.

The MILF force was estimated at 15,700 scattered throughout Central Mindanao.

"The weakness of the MILF was that it chose to split its forces over large swaths of territory not for military reasons but for political reasons," the paper says.

Only 11,700 rebels were properly armed.

"The MILF was able to escape destruction not because of their skills but in spite of it," the paper says.

"The AFP strategy was not to box in the MILF but was primarily directed at clearing them out of their camps. It was not an objective to eliminate them as a fighting force."

The NICA paper confirms recent reports citing military vice-chief of staff, General Gregorio Camiling, as saying that the AFP still considers the MILF a threat.

"Since we are the ones fighting in the field, we cannot be blamed if we cannot say we have full confidence in the MILF," Gen. Camiling said in a TV interview. For this reason, he stated that the AFP is welcoming government efforts to forge peace with the separatist group.

Currently, the peace process is hamstrung by haggling between government peace negotiators and the legislature over perceived concessions to the rebels in the recently signed agreement allowing the rehabilitation of areas damaged by the decades-old conflict.