Interesting poll on the cards

Ordinarily, the way that Sri Lankans vote in Thursday's presidential election should determine the future of the island nation. But with support for both mainstream parties, more or less evenly divided in the Sinhala dominated south, it's the fringe parties and, more importantly, the Tamil vote from the north and east that will prove crucial.

It's ironic that the separatist Tigers who have agreed to a ceasefire, but have had no qualms about silencing opposition such as the voice of the eminent foreign minister Lakshman Kadirgamar, should play such a role. But it's in their interest to have a government they can influence in Colombo.

The Tigers call for a poll boycott will, by default, deprive presidential hopeful and pro-business opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe of vital swing votes.

Reviled in the south for doing a deal with the Tigers, Ranil faces off against Mahinda Rajapakse, the ruling party candidate who has attacked his rival's Tiger links to his own advantage. Rajapakse may, however, have to contend with the masses' lingering anger over tardy tsunami relief and reconstruction.

All in all, it's an interesting battle. For the first time in years, a Bandaranaike will not be a candidate.

Outgoing President Chandrika Kumaratunga is sitting this one out.