Chretien move comes as a bolt from the blue

The man poking up the sign above Jean Chretien's head as he addressed a public meeting in Vancouver last week – and managing to appear in television news clips and front pages of newspapers across the country – had a message for the prime minister so simple, yet so polite. It said: "Please retire."

Almost a plea, it was so quintessentially Canadian, and amply reflected the mood of most Canadians these days.

They have tremendous respect for Chretien, believe he has done a terrific job as prime minister, leading the country out of deficit financing into budget surpluses and paying down a good part of the once-crippling national debt.

He is also credited with neutralising Quebec separatism and holding the country together, while securing ringing mandates for his ruling Liberal Party at three successive general elections.

An impressive record of achievements, comparable with the work of some of the great prime ministers of the past. But as most Canadians feel, even great leaders have to bow out some time and make way for younger leaders to take over.

And if they can make the transition smooth and dignified and peaceful in the true spirit of democracy, the country would be better for it. After all, that is also the Canadian way.
For months, Canadians have been wondering whether Chretien would accede to their collective wish and ride into the sunset gracefully.

Their worry was that the feisty prime minister, who has developed an intense dislike for his main rival former finance minister Paul Martin, would hang on to office just to deny him the chance to succeed him.

In fact, every signal coming out of the prime minister's office and his ruling Liberal Party headquarters in the past several weeks was that Chretien would not only stay, he was gearing up to fight Martin for the leadership again at the party leadership review next February.

But on Thursday, the 68-year old prime minister shocked even his closest supporters by throwing in the towel. Ending months of furious speculation, he announced he would retire as the Liberal Party leader at the end of his current mandate.

That is, in February 2004. After that a leadership contest will be held.

"I will not run again," he said following a two-day meeting of the Liberal national caucus in Quebec. "I will fulfil my mandate and focus entirely on governing from now until February 2004. At which time my work will be done, and at which time my successor will be chosen."

With his wife standing by his side, Chretien also tried to mend the divisions within his party over his public quarrel with Martin. "For 40 years, Liberal Party has been like family to me," he said. "Its best interests are bred in my bones. I have reflected on the best way to bring back unity, to end the fighting, to resume interrupted friendships."

Chretien and his handlers are hard at work trying to put the best spin possible on the announcement.

The prime minister said – and the handlers are echoing it across the country – that it had always been his plan to retire at the end of his current term. Only he did not want to announce it because it was not in the best "political" interest to do so until the time was right.

Maybe this is true, but his recent actions were certainly not consistent with such a retirement plan. If he was indeed planning to leave in two years, why did he want to bid for the party leadership again at the Liberal Party leadership review coming up next February?

Why did he set up his own leadership campaign team, which was challenging Martin at every parliamentary constituency in the country?

What was the need to release a letter last Monday, carrying signatures of 94 Liberal members of parliament, swearing allegiance to Chretien now and at the forthcoming leadership review?
Was that not a calculated attempt to reverse, or at least slow, the momentum that has clearly been building up for Martin all through this summer?

Most political analysts believe Chretien reversed himself because he saw the writing on the wall after four MPs disowned their signatures two days after they signed the letter and demanded their names be dropped from the list.

The MPs claimed they were not consulted and that they should not be on the list of those supporting Chretien's right to determine the timing of his departure.

"The backtracking by the four MPs shocked and embarrassed the prime minister," one analyst said. "He realised, maybe for the first time, the extent of the dissension within the Liberal Party over the leadership question.

With only 90 out of the 170 Liberal MPs willing to openly side with him over the leadership question, it was clear to him and other senior Liberals that the party is already splintered right down the middle.

"I think they put their heads together and decided a retirement announcement by Chretien is the way to stop the bleeding."

But there is little doubt that the prime minister resisted until the last moment.

Even as the Liberals were gathering in Chicoutimi, Quebec, for their caucus meeting, Chretien was being feisty as ever, not only saying he is staying on as prime minister, but also taking some pot shots at Martin.

Without naming him, he inferred that Martin's leadership campaign is similar to the short-lived rule of former Progressive Conservative Prime Minister Kim Campbell in the summer of 1993 when her campaign to defeat Chretien ended with her party losing all but two in the general election that followed.

"Remember 1993," the prime minister said. "You know we had a great star all that summer. We called her at that time a shooting star. She had only a summer job for, after the summer Kim Campbell was no more a star."

The prime minister was clearly aiming the barb at the former finance minister's current campaign for the party leadership, which he has intensified this summer with a series of barbecues and speeches across Canada.

What happens now is anybody's guess. His verbal gaffes notwithstanding – he once called the UN Secretary General "Goofy" Annan – the little man from the small Quebec town of Shawinigan, has been the iron man of Canadian politics, having won 12 straight constituency elections and three straight majority victories as Liberal leader.

Not even the more popular Pierre Eliot Trudeau can surpass him as the most successful Liberal vote-getter.

Come election time, the Liberal Party will miss him and, whatever his detractors say, his departure is no guarantee that the way is now clear for Paul Martin to succeed him as the next leader.

In fact, with the retirement announcement automatically postponing the February leadership contest for at least another 18 months, Martin may very well find his chances of succeeding Chretien receding rather than improving.

With a lame duck prime minister in charge for the next 18 months, and at least three cabinet ministers – Deputy Prime Minister and new Finance Minister John Manley, Industry Minister Alan Rock and Heritage Minister Sheila Copps – expected to join the leadership fray, there is a good chance the federal government and the Liberal Party wi